Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness Through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation

Ender, Tommer R.; Leurck, R.; Weaver, Brian; Miceli, Paul; Blair, W.D.; West, Philip D.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

doi:10.1109/jsyst.2010.2045541

Cited by 68 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Engineers quantify the utility by eliciting stakeholder utility functions over a set of SoS-level attributes (an example is measures of effectiveness) and aggregating the single-attribute utility functions into a multi-attribute utility function. Others used surrogate modeling techniques that approximate the responses of the M&S tools to alleviate the computational burden of detailed analysis (see Ender et al (2010)). For complex SoS, rapid trade space exploration studies offer a practical approach in support of early concept development preceding investment of the substantial resources required to stand up sophisticated M&S environments.…”

Section: Evaluating Alternativesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities in Trade‐off Analytics for Systems of Systems

Monahan

Jacobs

Markina‐Khusid

et al. 2018

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Increasingly the systems engineering community recognizes that success of many of today's enterprises depends on our ability to effectively reason about and harness Systems of Systems (SoS) capabilities. This paper specifically addresses the challenges in conducting trade‐off analysis for SoS, approaches that help to alleviate these challenges, and identifies opportunities for further development. For large SoS the use of lightweight analysis approaches provides a way to manage the complexity and identify promising options for more detail trade‐off analysis approaches.

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Section: Evaluating Alternativesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities in Trade‐off Analytics for Systems of Systems

Monahan

Jacobs

Markina‐Khusid

et al. 2018

INSIGHT

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show abstract

“…Once these surrogate models are created, a design space can be explored by rapidly generating thousands of cases, each with negligible (but measurable) loss in fidelity from the original M&S environment. The process used to create the neural network based surrogate models in this study is similar to that described by one of the authors of this paper in a similar application to ballistic missile defense analysis [14].…”

Section: Surrogate Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Portfolio Management of Renewable Hybrid Energy Sources

Ender

Murphy

Haynes

2008

2008 IEEE Energy 2030 Conference

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Existing models of various energy assets do not consider social, economical, and environmental factors in addition to the technical. An energy systems modeling tool must address variability of ecological and socio-economic sensitivities in order to practically guide policy and budget related decisions. The aim of this effort is to produce an advisory and design tool geared toward aiding entities with robust planning and implementation of effective renewable energy solutions based on trusted models. A tool was developed that enables tradeoffs between various energy systems, based on neural network surrogate models of a publicly available power systems modeling tool. These surrogate models enable the higher-level decision making tool to manipulate surrogate representations of actual engineering models, as opposed to relying on qualitative or expert-driven estimations which are traditionally used in this regard. This research will present a decision-maker with the ability to determine which various renewable and non-renewable energy systems meet annual energy load requirements, acquisition and operation costs, and individual solution attributes.

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“…System-of-systems level, [5][6][7] which takes full advantages of M&S, addresses the problem from a system engineering perspective and performs a full-scale characterization of the BMDS. Based on the established models, sensitivity of BMDS effectiveness to the defense participants can be analyzed and suggestions can be drawn for improvement.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness analysis of exoatmospheric interceptor using reachable set model

Chai

Wang

2017

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G:

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The effectiveness of exoatmospheric interceptor is analyzed in this paper based on the reachable set model. Firstly, the connotations of the reachable set model, including its precise definition, mathematic description and analysis algorithms are briefly introduced. Secondly, concerning the problem of interceptor system deployment, the defense zone is introduced as a metric of effectiveness. The factors that influence the configurations of defense zone are explored. Thirdly, concerning the problem of incoming target assignment, an index system composed of earliest intercept moment, interception time window and radar support distance is drawn to capture the effectiveness. The selection of optimal intercept plan is treated as a multi-alternatives sequencing problem and addressed by the multiple attribute decision making method. Simulation examples prove the efficiency of the raised approach. The reachable set-based approach proposed in this paper serves as a ready support to other studies related to interceptor capability.

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Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness Through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation

Cited by 68 publications

References 9 publications

Challenges and Opportunities in Trade‐off Analytics for Systems of Systems

Challenges and Opportunities in Trade‐off Analytics for Systems of Systems

A Framework for Portfolio Management of Renewable Hybrid Energy Sources

Effectiveness analysis of exoatmospheric interceptor using reachable set model

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