Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the earliest clinical manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). Currently there are no prognostic biological markers that accurately predict conversion of CIS to clinically definite MS (CDMS). Furthermore, the earliest molecular events in MS are still unknown. We used microarrays to study gene expression in naïve CD4 ؉ T cells from 37 CIS patients at time of diagnosis and after 1 year. Supervised machine-learning methods were used to build predictive models of disease conversion. We identified 975 genes whose expression segregated CIS patients into four distinct subgroups. A subset of 108 genes further discriminated patients in one of these (group 1) from other CIS patients. Remarkably, 92% of patients in group 1 converted to CDMS within 9 months. Consistent down-regulation of TOB1, a critical regulator of cell proliferation, was characteristic of group 1 patients. Decreased TOB1 expression at the RNA and protein levels also was confirmed in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis. Finally, a genetic association was observed between TOB1 variation and MS progression in an independent cohort. These results indicate that CIS patients at high risk of conversion have impaired regulation of T cell quiescence, possibly resulting in earlier activation of pathogenic CD4 ؉ cells.clinically isolated syndrome ͉ gene expression M ultiple sclerosis (MS) is a common disabling neurologic disease of young adults (1). Most patients with MS initially present with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) caused by an inflammatory demyelinating insult in the central nervous system (CNS). Approximately one-third of CIS patients progress to clinically definite MS (CDMS) within 1 year after diagnosis, and approximately half do so after 2 years (2, 3). It is estimated that Ϸ10% of CIS patients remain free of further demyelinating attacks and neurological complications even in the presence of radiological evidence of white matter lesions (4). Although structural neuroimaging studies are invaluable in the diagnosis and clinical surveillance of MS (3, 5), there currently is no biological marker that accurately predicts MS conversion in CIS patients. Individualized early prognosis and prediction of CDMS would be of substantial value because patients at high risk for rapid progression could be offered disease-modifying therapy, an approach shown to be beneficial in early MS (2). In addition, CIS patients represent a unique population for the study of early molecular events that lead to demyelination and axonal degeneration.In this article we describe the analysis of gene expression in naïve (unstimulated) CD4 ϩ T cells isolated from well characterized CIS patients at the time of diagnosis and after 1 year and show a distinct molecular signature that differentiates CIS patients from healthy controls. The expression of a subset of those genes successfully identifies a group of patients at high risk of MS conversion. Molecular changes observed in individuals who rapidly converted to MS are consistent ...