Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework

Gorupec, Natalia; Brehmer, Nataliia; Tiberius, Victor; Kraus, Sascha

doi:10.2478/ijm-2022-0003

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 160 publications

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“…In the content dimension, the use of strategic foresight for entrepreneurship has been proposed. Strategic foresight explores the various scenarios that may unfold in the future, particularly to increase organizations' preparedness, adaptability, and innovativeness [125][126][127][128][129][130][131]. In the entrepreneurship context, this approach is not yet well-established [132][133][134].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Curricula for Higher Entrepreneurship Education: An International Real-Time Delphi

Tiberius,

Weyland

2024

Education Sciences

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Existing curricula for entrepreneurship education do not necessarily represent the best way of teaching. How could entrepreneurship curricula be improved? To answer this question, we aim to identify and rank desirable teaching objectives, teaching contents, teaching methods, and assessment methods for higher entrepreneurship education. To this end, we employ an international real-time Delphi study with an expert panel consisting of entrepreneurship education instructors and researchers. The study reveals 17 favorable objectives, 17 items of content, 25 teaching methods, and 15 assessment methods, which are ranked according to their desirability and the group consensus. We contribute to entrepreneurship curriculum research by adding a normative perspective.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Curricula for Higher Entrepreneurship Education: An International Real-Time Delphi

Tiberius,

Weyland

2024

Education Sciences

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“…Krychowski & Quélin, (2010); explored the need and importance of ROA in telecommunication projects with uncertain investment ecosystem towards a more holistic strategic risk management. In a more comprehensive review, (Csapi, 2019;and Gorupec et al, 2022); argues that the company's capital allocation to generate more profit amid uncertainty can be achieved through ROA as it allows risk reduction to be made using the variables most likely to be affected by risk and they documented many works done using ROA. Interestingly, Bogdan et al ( 2017) utilize ROA through Monte Carlo Simulation to investigate the risk and uncertainty in steel industry and they argued that such is needed in assets valuation subjected to many investments risk.…”

Section: Literatures Monte Carlo Simulation and Real Options: A Case ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis of Non-Cyanide and Cyanide Gold Leaching Technologies: Lessons Learned from the Failed CLINN GEM Facility and Promising Results of the REVIVE SSMB Project in Itogon, Benguet

Edike,

Boado,

Ocampo

et al. 2024

TECH-GJTDSI

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This research paper presents a comparative analysis of a non-cyanide gold leaching technologies implemented in the small-scale mining community of Itogon Benguet against a potential gold recovery method with Free Cyanide decontamination and Sodium Cyanide recovery system. The study evaluates the failed CLINN GEM facility and the successful REVIVE SSMB project, focusing on technology readiness and acceptance, operational efficiency, and community engagement. The results demonstrate that the failure of the CLINN GEM facility was attributed to its low community acceptance, high operating costs, and complexity, hindering its practicality and scalability. In contrast, the REVIVE SSMB project achieved exceptional results through an alternative gold ore leaching process using Cyanidation CIP method, driven by strong community engagement, cost-effectiveness, sustainable wastewater/tailings discharge management system and simplified operation approach even for the recovery of gold from complex and low-grade Au ore from the locality. For a viability assessment, a stochastic model for the technology feasibility and project optional valuation under diverse uncertainty consideration for community adoption and expansion presentable to potential investors or for the option right to accept and manage the technology as demonstrated. This research simulated the viability of the REVIVE SSMB approach with a high predictability using Monte Carlo Model through Real Option Analysis; and under the worst-case scenario at 50th percentile (median) 74.53% recovery was achieved. Repeatedly with a similar 50th percentile simulation under an optimized condition with pulp density of 44- 50% and 3kg per ton of activated carbon loading during flotation yielded a gold recovery of 91%. Hence, it is arguably viable, coupling with the 98 to 99% free cyanide decontamination rate and the 55% NaCN recovery successful discharge management system under the REVIVE SSMB 6 months project model.

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“…Real options analysis is widely used in the economic analysis of investment projects (Gorupec et al, 2022). In the forestry sector, it assists in the analysis of investment risk and in decision making.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real options analysis applied to investment projects in planted forests of Pinus

et al. 2022

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Planted forests are long-term projects involving a large monetary contribution, and generally require the incorporation of managerial flexibility. As the traditional methodology for economic evaluation does not allow for the incorporation of these flexibilities, our study aimed to analyze whether investment projects in planted forests of Pinus elliottii Engelm. are economically feasible, by applying a real options analysis. We used empirical data from one hectare of a planted forest of P. elliottii with a 14-year planning horizon. Managerial flexibilities were incorporated in combinations and also separately, as options to defer, expand or abandon the investment project. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the present value of USD 1.016 was conditioned to anticipated return values from the second to the fourteenth year, with a volatility return of 14.5%. With real options analysis, the value of the combined options was USD 29, which, in terms of traditional net present value, showed an expanded net present value of USD 468. The real options analysis thus shows that investment projects in planted forests of P. elliottii are economically feasible. Given that real options analysis is a methodology not widely used in the forestry sector for economic analysis of investment projects, this study can be used to assist forest managers in analysing investment risks and decisions, specifically those related to market fluctuations of planted forests of Pinus spp., assuming that the real options of deferral, expansion and abandonment of an investment project are used.

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Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework

Cited by 3 publications

References 160 publications

Improving Curricula for Higher Entrepreneurship Education: An International Real-Time Delphi

Improving Curricula for Higher Entrepreneurship Education: An International Real-Time Delphi

A Comparative Analysis of Non-Cyanide and Cyanide Gold Leaching Technologies: Lessons Learned from the Failed CLINN GEM Facility and Promising Results of the REVIVE SSMB Project in Itogon, Benguet

Real options analysis applied to investment projects in planted forests of Pinus

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