Taking a Glimpse Into the Future by Playing?

Abstract

Background. This article analyses whether an experimental policy-simulation might help political scientists in making predictions about prospective situations. Within the presented simulation-game, two groups of randomly assigned participants discussed the same issues but had different demographic structures. The ways in which their discussions transpired and results of the negotiation might provide a glimpse at how decisions might be made by societies in the future. Purpose. This article presents this special simulation-game. Furthermore, it seeks to discuss whether policy-simulations can be designed as experiments, whether there is a benefit, and for whom. Method. This study is based on both qualitative and quantitative data. The partici-pants in the simulation-game have been questioned in a pretest and in two post-tests. Furthermore, six pre- and post-interviews were conducted with involved experts. Results. The results show that the simulation-game can provide some ideas about the future, if perhaps not necessarily a wholly accurate image of the future. Observing experts and the participants gained some knowledge about how future generations might work together and where potential conflicts might be. Conclusion. Policy-simulations can be designed as experiments and might help to provide a glimpse into future, but designing such simulation-games is even more com-plex than designing simulationgames for a solely educational use.

Human-Computer Interaction and Simulation/Gaming

“…With “Taking a glimpse into the future by playing?” Robert Lohmann (2019) enters a classic territory that has been of interest to simulation and gaming studies even before the five decades of this journal: making predictions of the future, based on playing games. The work also ties closely to the roots of Simulation & Gaming in that it addresses policy simulations in a novel way.…”