Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace

Abstract

The recent United Nation Secretary General's report on sustaining peace speaks to an urgent crisis of complexity in global affairs, where a wide assortment of nonstate actors wields more political power than ever before. In this context, the international community's traditional ways of forecasting, planning, policymaking, and assessing impact are becoming rapidly obsolete. In response, policymakers are calling for more holistic or systemic approaches to peace and development. Unfortunately, these proposed changes are merely ‘systems light’, essentially a metaphorical characterization of peace systems where their component parts are seen as interconnected and complicated. This form of systems thinking is insufficiently informed by more sophisticated methods from complexity science. This article will illustrate how two methods derived from complexity science, causal loop diagramming and mathematical modeling, can help us understand the properties and dynamics of intervention in complex peace systems. Causal loop diagrams help us to identify the peace factors and the connections between them. Mathematical modeling helps us determine the quantitative results of the interactions between all the peace factors. Using these methods together can lead to new insights for peacebuilding and for mitigating the unintended consequences of well intended policies.

Four propositions on integrated sustainability: toward a theoretical framework to understand the environment, peace, and sustainability nexus

“…Previous calls for improving effective environmental action have noted the importance of institutional change at the global level (Biermann et al 2012). Similarly, in this paper we propose to investigate the processes, structures, and institutions that enable us to effectively manage the dilemmas inherent to the sustainability agenda (Fisher and Coleman 2019). We understand the SDGs themselves as insufficient decision-support instruments, and a deeper study of the complex system and multiple forces that lead to the goals themselves is necessary (Allen et al 2020).…”

“…Both formal and informal institutions are utilized by societies to manage conflicts, but with regards to this proposition we assert that institutions that both enable cooperation across networks and social ties as well as those that effectively regulate competition are required to pursue the sustainability agenda (Schnegg 2018 ). This proposition draws on a well-established body of research related to effective cooperation and conflict resolution (Coleman et al 2017a , 2019 ; b ; Deutsch 1973 , 1985 , 2006 ; Rubin et al 1994 ).…”

How to live in peace? Mapping the science of sustaining peace: A progress report.

“…Below, the procedures and preliminary findings from the six project components are outlined in brief (for more complete descriptions, see Coleman et al, 2019, 2020; Liebovitch et al, 2019; Mazzaro et al, 2015).…”

Approaches to Understanding Sustainable Peace: Qualitative Causal Loop Diagrams and Quantitative Mathematical Models

“…What was learned from the causal loop diagram proposed by Coleman et al (2017)? (1) We identified 25 “peace factors” that are important in generating and sustaining peace.…”