Taking the current when it serves: Prospects and challenges for an ITLOS advisory opinion on oceans and climate change

Abstract

The 2021 Agreement for the Establishment of the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law has brought the prospect of an advisory opinion on climate change from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) a step closer to reality. The Agreement authorizes COSIS to submit a request to the full Tribunal, following the road paved for the first time-and not uncontroversially-by the 2015 ITLOS Sub-regional Fisheries Commission Advisory Opinion. This article explores the potential for progressive development of (erga omnes) obligations under the law of the sea in relation to climate change by means of an advisory opinion, as well as challenges that may be encountered. Drawing on previous case law, it reflects on the suitability of the ITLOS advisory route, substantive and strategic considerations and potential future implications of an ITLOS advisory opinion on climate change. 1 | INTRODUCTION On 31 October 2021, the first day of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1 in Glasgow, the governments of Antigua and Barbuda and Tuvalu signed an Agreement for the Establishment of the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS Agreement). 2 The COSIS Agreement is open to all members of the Alliance of Small Island States, and Palau and Niue have since acceded. 3 Undoubtedly, the most notable feature of the Agreement is that it authorizes the Commission to request an advisory opinion from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). 4It thereby enables the Commission to follow the road paved by the ITLOS' 2015 Sub-regional Fisheries Commission Advisory Opinion (SRFC Advisory Opinion), 5 where it was established for the first time that the full Tribunal can exercise advisory jurisdiction over a legal question if an international agreement related to the purposes of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 6 specifically provides for such a request. 7 This conclusion and, in particular, the rather succinct reasoning of the Tribunal to support it were not uncon-

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