29In the face of limited funding and widespread threats to biodiversity, conserving the widest 30 possible variety of biological traits (functional diversity, FD) is a reasonable prioritization 31 objective. Because species traits are often similar among closely related species (phylogenetic 32 signal), many researchers have advocated for a "phylogenetic gambit": maximizing 33 phylogenetic diversity (PD) should indirectly capture FD. To our knowledge, this gambit has not 34 been subject to a focused empirical test. Here we use data from >15,000 vertebrate species to 35 empirically test it. We delineate >10,000 species pools and test whether prioritizing the most 36 phylogenetically diverse set of species results in more or less FD relative to a random choice.
37We find that, across species pools, maximizing PD results in an average gain of 18% of FD 38 relative to a random choice, suggesting that PD is a sound conservation prioritization strategy.
39However, this averaged gain hides important variability: for 10% of the species pools, 40 maximizing PD can capture less FD than an averaged random scheme because of recent trait 41 divergence and/or very strong trait conservatism. In addition, within a species pool, many 42 random sets of species actually yield more FD than the PD-maximized selection -on average 43 36% of the time per pool. If the traits we used are representative of traits we wish to conserve, 44 our results suggest that conservation initiatives focusing on PD will, on average, capture more 45 FD than a random strategy, but this gain will not systematically yield more FD than random and 46 thus can be considered risky.
48. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.The copyright holder for this preprint (which . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/243923 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online 49 50 We are in the midst of a period of heightened biological extinction, with rates several orders of 51 magnitude higher than background rates estimated from the fossil record [1][2][3]. In addition to 52 having potentially widespread consequences for the functioning of ecosystems and the 53 provisioning of valuable ecosystem services, this situation poses a huge moral challenge [4][5][6][7][8].
54And, to the extent that resources for conservation actions remain limited, agonizing choices as 55 to which species most warrant attention become necessary [9,10] was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.The copyright holder for this preprint (which . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/243923 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online question of whether maximizing PD will actually capture more FD than prioritization schemes 72 that ignore phylogeny has, to our knowledge, never been empirically tested [16] phylogenetically-informed conservation initiative is species-centered (EDGE; Isaac et ...