Target Choice During Extreme Events: A Discrete Spatial Choice Model of the 2011 London Riots

Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series

“…Third, as expected and as suggested by prior studies on offenders' site selection (e.g., Baudains et al, 2013;Townsley & Sidebottom, 2010), series of analyses conducted to investigate the stability of the encounter sites provide evidence of the diversification of the sites selected with longer series. More specifically, the study findings suggest that the number of crime sites found changes at the third transition (fourth crime).…”

“…The victim encounter and release sites are relatively bound together and part of environmental crime scripts characterizing this sample. In fact, in line with the crime pattern theory and prior research (e.g., Baudains et al, 2013;Brantingham & Brantingham, 1993;Bernasco, 2010;Felson & Cohen, 1980;Townsley & Sidebottom, 2010), it seems that they tend to specifically select sites that are more familiar to them but also known to attract more potential victims and generate more criminal opportunities. The current study also provides preliminary data suggesting that there are connections between the victim encounter site and the offender's series progression.…”

“…Also, because the area where offenders will offend is largely based on their routine activities and awareness space (e.g., Felson & Cohen, 1980;Townsley & Sidebottom, 2010), crime site selection is expected to change over the offender's criminal career (Baudains, Braithwaite, & Johnson, 2013) -new routines changing the awareness space and bringing new opportunities at new locations.…”

“…Recent studies have also investigated target selection and spatial choices of rioters (e.g., Baudains et al, 2013;Martin, McCarthy, & McPhail, 2009). These previous studies have provided evidence that the selection of locations to commit crimes is not random and "irrational" but rather controlled and based on the available information and internal cost-benefit calculation of the offender.…”

Rate effects on the growth of centres

“…The model has its origins in the shopping model initially developed by Huff (1963) and Lakshmanan and Hansen (1965) and shares many similarities to the gravity models widely used in location theory and urban planning (Isard, 1975;Senior, 1979). It was later formalised by Wilson and Wilson (1971), embedded into a dynamic Lotka-Volterra type system (Harris and Wilson, 1978) and has since been adapted to a range of applications in theory and practice, including trade (Fry, 2012), migration (Dennett and Wilson, 2013), higher education (Singleton et al, 2012), policing strategy (Baudains et al, 2013;Davies et al, 2013), analysis of archaeological sites (Davies et al, 2014) and distribution of city sizes (Favaro and Pumain, 2011).…”