Targeting Quality or Quantity? The Divergent Effects of Targeting Upper Verses Lower-Tier Leaders of Militant Organizations

Abstract

Research on the efficacy of leadership decapitation has focused primarily on targeting the topmost leaders of groups. Yet, most organizations rely on multiple leaders with specific functional or geographical responsibilities, rather than a single symbolic leader. In this context, we pose the following question: how are the effects of leadership decapitation on a group’s short-term operational capacity conditioned by the type or rank of targeted leaders? We argue that due to the risks faced by militant organizations, upper-tier leaders will delegate operational duties to lower-tier leadership for security purposes. Because of the shift of the principal-agent dynamic to lower-tier leaders, targeting of lower ranked leaders versus topmost leaders is more likely to result in a loss of control over foot soldiers, and trigger negative effects such as a rise in indiscriminate violence. We conduct our study using the case of Islamic State Khorasan in Afghanistan, with weekly data on the group’s attacks, and multi-tier leadership losses between 2015–2019 across 72 districts. 1

Carrot or stick, or both? Examining U.S. presidents' use of counterterrorism tools in Pakistan, 2001–2020

“…In parallel, development aid levels continued to fall consistently between 2017 and 2020. Additionally, the United States initiated a dedicated air strike and drone campaign against ISK in Afghanistan, which was considered to be the organization's main stronghold (Jadoon et al, 2023). In fact, the U.S. military dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan in April 2017, targeting ISK's tunnel complex in Achin, Nangarhar (Griffiths et al, 2017).…”

“…These conditions contributed to al‐Qaeda's resiliency in the aftermath of bin Laden's death. On the other hand, scholars such as Price (2012, p. 22) argue that skeptics are overly critical of leadership decapitation, while others have argued that the rank of the targeted leader matters (Jadoon et al, 2023). Price (2012) qualifies that targeted killings are effective when succession is perceived to be difficult: the unique, covert, and values‐based nature of terrorist groups increases the difficulty of successful succession relative to other groups that lack these characteristics.…”