Teaching from experience: foreign training and rebel success in civil War

Keels, Eric; Benson, Jay; Widmeier, Michael

doi:10.1177/0738894220912976

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Competing risks are used often in studies of conflict termination; thus, our use of this model facilitates some comparability (e.g. Greig et al, 2018; Keels et al, 2020). We select a Cox model for estimation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forever wars: Divided government and the termination of interventions in support of civil war governments

Linebarger

Enterline

2022

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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Why do third-party states continue interventions in support of governments fighting civil wars even when continuing to do so appears futile from a military standpoint? To answer this question, we focus on third-party state domestic politics, theorising that institutional characteristics condition the likelihood that the third party will terminate support to a civil war government before a conflict ends. When a third-party state’s legislature and executive branches are controlled by opposing political parties, the third party’s executive is more likely to remain committed to an intervention in order to deny political opponents the opportunity to seize on the withdrawal as a basis for political advantage. To test this expectation, we assemble a data sample of third-party interventions in support of civil war governments during the period 1975–2009. The analysis suggests that the third-party divided government reduces the likelihood of an early termination of its support for a civil war government. Our analysis underscores the role of third-party domestic politics in understanding the dynamics of internationalised civil conflicts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forever wars: Divided government and the termination of interventions in support of civil war governments

Linebarger

Enterline

2022

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations

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“…External support has been found to impact all aspects of the civil war process from conflict onset (Cunningham, 2016; Regan & Meachum, 2014), to conflict duration (Anderson 2019; Aydin & Regan, 2011; Cunningham, 2010; Roberts, 2019; Testerman 2015), spill-over to interstate conflict (Schultz, 2010), civil war negotiations (Karlén, forthcoming), conflict outcome (Jones, 2017; Lyall & Wilson, 2009; Sawyer, Cunningham & Reed 2017; McKibben & Skoll, 2021; Keels, Benson & Widmeier, forthcoming), conflict recurrence (Karlén, 2017), and democratic transitions (Colaresi, 2014). It shapes the form of contestation (Jackson, San-Akca & Maoz, 2020; Petrova, 2019), its lethality (Heger & Salehyan 2007) as well as levels of civilian abuse (Salehyan, Siroky & Wood, 2014) and sexual violence (Johansson & Sarwari, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017

Meier

Karlén

Pettersson

et al. 2022

Journal of Peace Research

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In this article, we present the most up-to-date, fine-grained, global dataset on external support in armed conflicts: the UCDP External Support Dataset (ESD). The dataset encompasses data on states and non-state actors as both supporters and recipients and provides detailed information on the type of support provided to warring parties in armed conflicts between 1975 and 2017. We use it to highlight three broader trends in the provision of external support: (1) a dramatic increase in the number of external supporters, (2) a larger share of pro-government interventions, and (3) the rise of direct military intervention as the predominant mode of external support. In conclusion, we identify several avenues worthy of future inquiry that could significantly improve our understanding of external support in armed conflicts.

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Target state responses to external support of rebel groups: Revealing the impact of support level and interstate strategic interaction

Kınay-Kılıç,

Aydınlı,

Tokdemir

2024

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provide a typology of responses from target states based on their severity and comprehensiveness level. We argue that the external support level and existing strategic interaction between targets and sponsors are crucial to explain the variation in target responses toward state sponsors since they affect the target states’ level of perceived threat. We test our theoretical claims using an original dataset featuring target responses between 1991 and 2010. Our findings show that strategic rivalry is the most crucial factor in increasing the severity and comprehensiveness of responses. Higher levels of support for rebel groups increase only coercive responses and do not impact comprehensiveness, whereas formal alliances decrease the adoption of mixed responses. Our study contributes to the literature on the external support of rebels and conflict management with implications for predicting target states’ responses to sponsorship.

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Teaching from experience: foreign training and rebel success in civil War

Cited by 4 publications

References 44 publications

Forever wars: Divided government and the termination of interventions in support of civil war governments

Forever wars: Divided government and the termination of interventions in support of civil war governments

External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017

Target state responses to external support of rebel groups: Revealing the impact of support level and interstate strategic interaction

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