Techno-Economic Evaluation of Jet Fuel Production via an Alternative Gasification-Driven Biomass-to-Liquid Pathway and Benchmarking with the State-of-the-Art Fischer–Tropsch and Alcohol-to-Jet Concepts

Abstract

Around 65% of the mitigation needed for the targeted net-zero carbon aviation emissions in 2050 is expected to come from Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). In this study, an alternative gasification-driven Biomass-to-Liquid (BtL) concept for the production of SAFs is introduced and evaluated. In particular, a fuel synthesis scheme based on the double-stage fermentation of the produced syngas (syngas → acetic acid → TAGs) is assessed instead of the conventional Fischer-Tropsch (FT) or Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) synthesis. The objective of the present work is the techno-economic evaluation of a large-scale (200 MWth) replication of the mentioned BtL concept, whose performance has been simulated in Aspen PlusTM (V.11) with reasonable upscaling considerations and models validated at a pilot scale. The estimated baseline Total Capital Investment (TCI) of €577 million lies in the typical range of €500–700 million that many recent techno-economic studies adopt for gasification-driven BtL plants of similar capacity, while the estimated annual operating costs of €50 million correspond to a 15–40% OpEx reduction compared to such plants. A discounted cash flow analysis was carried out, and a baseline Minimum Jet Selling Price (MJSP) equal to 1.83 €/L was calculated, while a range of 1.38–2.27 €/L emerged from the sensitivity analysis. This study sets the biological conversion of gasification-derived syngas into triglycerides (TAGs) as a promising alternative route for the production of SAFs. In general, gasification-driven BtL pathways, led by the relatively mature FT and AtJ technologies, are capable of thriving in the coming years based on their capability of advanced feedstock flexibility.