Technological Foresight of the Bioethanol Case

Silveira, José Maria Ferreira Jardim da; Poz, Maria Ester Soares Dal; Souza, Luiz Gustavo Antônio de; Huamani, I.R.L.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-803141-4.00008-3

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…As with many disciplines in various scientific fields, the future prospects of the bioethanol sector are very difficult to forecast [1]. This can be explained by the fact that the sector's economic positions are heavily dependent on processes occurring: (1) in the market of agricultural raw materials, which in itself is very turbulent in an era of global climate change [2] and oil price fluctuations [3]; (2) technological innovation in production [4]; (3) the market relations of by-products [5] and (4) the varying economic policies of different states [6]. It follows from this complexity that the bioethanol sector lends itself to the application of system dynamics [7], which is an emerging field of science, widely applied in modelling the economic aspects of energy supply systems [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

et al. 2020

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The bioethanol sector is an extremely complex set of actors, technologies and market structures, influenced simultaneously by different natural, economic, social and political processes. That is why it lends itself to the application of system dynamics modelling. In last five years a relatively high level of experience and knowledge has accumulated related to the application of computer-aided system modelling for the analysis and forecasting of the bioethanol sector. The goal of the current paper is to offer a systematic review of the application of system dynamics models in order to better understand the structure, conduct and performance of the bioethanol sector. Our method has been the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA), based on English-language materials published between 2015 and 2020. The results highlight that system dynamic models have become more and more complex, but as a consequence of the improvement in information technology and statistical systems, as well as the increasing experience gained they offer an efficient tool for decision makers in the business and political spheres. In the future, the combination of traditional system dynamics modelling and agent-based models will offer new perspectives for the preparation of more sophisticated description and forecasting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

et al. 2020

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Investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento agrícola

et al. 2019

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O artigo explora mudanças no volume e na composição dos investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento agrícola (P&D) que ocorreram nas últimas décadas. Para isso, é feita uma revisão bibliográfica da experiência internacional e apresentam-se fatos estilizados dos grupos de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. A partir de uma base inédita de dados primários, o estudo avalia a dinâmica dos investimentos privados em P&D alocados no Brasil por empresas dos setores de insumos agrícolas. O objetivo do trabalho é descrever as transformações recentes no país e contribuir para a tomada de decisões para o progresso tecnológico da agricultura. As conclusões destacam a alta intensidade tecnológica, o crescimento dos investimentos privados e a pequena participação relativa de empresas nacionais no progresso tecnológico de insumos agrícolas.

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Technological Foresight of the Bioethanol Case

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

PRISMA Statement for Reporting Literature Searches in Systematic Reviews of the Bioethanol Sector

Investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento agrícola

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