Technology Forecasting Methods

Cho, Yonghee; Daim, Tuğrul U.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-5097-8_4

Cited by 25 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 173 publications

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“…Technology Forecasting is generally defined as a method for anticipating future developments. Technology Foresight and Technology Forecasting are used interchangeably throughout the literature, however, (Cho and Daim 2013;Rohrbeck, 2007) describe Technology Foresight to be the wider ranging term, which includes aspects of networking on large levels as well as preparing for decision making. These terms are used on a very large and long-term scale, including defined to include science, technology, the economy, and society (Cho and Daim, 2013).…”

Section: Synthesizing Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

External Technology Searching Methods - A Literature Review

Kujawa¹,

Paetzold²

2019

Proc. Int. Conf. Eng. Des.

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This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the literature available in the field of External Technology Searching. Many methods exist to enable companies to take advantage of new technologies and apply them to achieve a competitive advantage. This literature review focuses on reducing complexity and providing clarity related to the numerous different terms and methodologies used throughout the literature. The main methods found in the literature include: Technology Foresight, Technology Forecasting, Technology Intelligence, and Technology Scouting. However, many additional terms have also been used to describe similar strategies, leading to inconsistency in the use of the terms, resulting in confusion and missed opportunities to innovate for those trying to navigate the field. Synthesis of the results assists in clarifying the differences and conflicts in the literature between the numerous terms. The results serve to display the state of the art on the field and present a basis for further research.

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Section: Synthesizing Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

External Technology Searching Methods - A Literature Review

Kujawa¹,

Paetzold²

2019

Proc. Int. Conf. Eng. Des.

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“…In terms of forecasting techniques, judgmental [5][6][7][8][9] and bibliometric analysis methods [6,[10][11][12][13]] have been used extensively by both scholars and practitioners. Specifically, judgmental methods first rely on the opinions of experts or panels with knowledge in a particular field that is relevant to the forecast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although traditional bibliometric methods have been used to trace back academic journal citations, bibliometrics analysis today is used to understand the past and even potentially to forecast the future [15,16]. Bibliometrics, in the context of technology forecasting, can be defined as the research of statistical analysis to produce and disseminate information with respect to the use of recorded literature or patents for forecasting and decision making [5]. Bibliometrics helps to identify the most recent technological trends and discover hidden patterns with information on authors/inventors, affiliations, and recent research in literature and patents [5,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bibliometrics, in the context of technology forecasting, can be defined as the research of statistical analysis to produce and disseminate information with respect to the use of recorded literature or patents for forecasting and decision making [5]. Bibliometrics helps to identify the most recent technological trends and discover hidden patterns with information on authors/inventors, affiliations, and recent research in literature and patents [5,17]. Bibliometrics has been popularized and is becoming more significant in technology forecasting with the rapid evolution of information technology and the advancement of database systems [18,19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bibliometrics has been popularized and is becoming more significant in technology forecasting with the rapid evolution of information technology and the advancement of database systems [18,19]. Various types of bibliometric tools have been developed to analyze descriptive statistics, affiliations, authors, countries, and collaborations in the literature [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Is M&A Information Useful for Exploring Promising Industries and Technologies?

2019

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Companies today that seek to diversify their business are looking for opportunities in new markets by considering their core competencies. However, companies are struggling to diversify and grow their current businesses due to a lack of information concerning diversification and a low level of capability for future commercialization. In this study, we suggest a new methodology that identifies promising industry and technology areas by examining mergers and acquisitions (M&As) transaction data. Specifically, by analyzing the extent to which firms have engaged in M&A activities, the prediction of promising industries is derived from the relationships among specific industries, as well as the M&A transactions among technology areas within a focal industry. We first theoretically test whether all M&A transactions are related to promising areas. Second, we analyze the trends of global M&As by a time-series analysis of M&A transactions by sectors over the last 15 years. Lastly, we conduct an association analysis to identify the degree of M&A connections between industry and technology areas, respectively. We hope that our results provide insights for R&D policymakers and investors who need to decide on promising industries to cultivate or invest in, and researchers who want to identify overall M&A trends and promising industries and technology areas.

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