Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract

Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

U.S. West Coast Droughts and Heat Waves Exacerbate Pollution Inequality and Can Undermine Emission Control Policies

“…power availability and performance metrics. This result, which confirms previously reported findings 6,16 , is due to the relatively small percentage (4.5% wind, 10.7% solar) of California electricity demand that is met by wind and solar in the 2018 version of the grid, as well as the smaller range in interannual variability observed in wind speeds and solar irradiance compared to hydropower (see Figure S3).…”

Impacts of changing snowfall on seasonal complementarity of hydroelectric and solar power

“…To the extent that lower SWE/P is associated with greater monthly complementarity of solar and hydroelectric power generation, future decreases in SWE/P could have implications for grid operations and capacity planning. Low hydroelectric power generation is a major driver of high electricity prices, regardless of power sector scenario (Wessel et al 2022). The same study also found that shortfalls were most common when hydropower was unavailable during late summer heat events and that abundant hydropower in spring months tended to result in very low electricity prices.…”

Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems

“…As of the time of publication. The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al., 2021; Quinn et al., 2020; Wessel et al., 2022; Wild et al., 2021).…”

“…Exponentially scaling hypothesis generation and exploration require a broader and deeper workforce developed using active commitments to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Figure 8 summarizes the The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al, 2021;Quinn et al, 2020;Wessel et al, 2022;Wild et al, 2021).…”