Teenagers’ Expectations of Applying to University: How do they Change?

Abstract

We show how young people's expectations about application to university change during the teenage years, drawing on the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). We reveal the pattern of change by family background, prior attainment at the end of primary school (measured by Key Stage 2 tests) and, critically, the combination of the two. We document the relationship between expectations about university application and the decision on whether to stay on in full-time education at 16. We point to the importance of schools in sustaining or changing expectations. We relate the expectations reported by the teenagers in LSYPE to their actual university application decisions by age 20 or 21. Expectations are high but not universally high. Family background gaps in expectations widen during the teenage years.

The influence of socioeconomic status on changes in young people’s expectations of applying to university

“…However, Morgan (1998) argues that 'educational expectations are not "flights of fancy" or "vague preferences" [but rather,] because they can be explained by a reasonable theory of rational behavior, should be considered rational' (p. 157) and hence, presumably, informative. Certainly, previous work has shown a correlation between educational expectations and later outcomes in several developed countries around the world (Anders & Micklewright, 2015;Chowdry et al, 2011;Khoo & Ainley, 2005;Reynolds & Pemberton, 2001). Why do these associations exist?…”

“…There exists a previous literature on the formation and correlates of young people's educational expectations and aspirations (Anders & Micklewright, 2015;Baker et al, 2014;Chowdry, Crawford, & Goodman, 2010;Rampino & Taylor, 2013). Previous work has always found a role for SES.…”

The effect of schools on school leavers’ university participation

“…Using the same dataset, Anders and Micklewright (2015) have been able to highlight the importance of parents' education on young people's expectations, particularly if they had been to university themselves. But importantly, they showed that levels of attainment at the end of primary school education seemed to be more important in shaping expectations than having an advantaged family background.…”

“…As noted earlier, attributing causation to a cluster variable is problematic. As Anders and Micklewright (2015) pointed out, these school "effects" could reflect a number of school-level factors, including peer influences and family attributes that are associated with a school's intake. Nevertheless, the use of multilevel models allows us to estimate the size of effects at the school level, from which further consideration of the causal relationships is now possible.…”

“…However, in terms of overall participation into HE they concluded, "schools mainly affect overall participation through their effect on prior achievement" (p. 451). In terms of young people's aspirations and expectations in England, Anders and Micklewright (2015) also suggested schools could have an important role. They too used school fixed effects in their statistical modelling, but acknowledged that the association they found could reflect several school-level factors: (a) direct encouragement, (b) peer influences, or (c) unmeasured pupil or family attributes that correlate with school admissions.…”