Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China

Zhang, Rui; Peng, Zhibin; Meng, Yujie; Song, Hejia; Wang, Songwang; Bi, Peng; Li, Dan; Zhao, Xiang; Yao, Xiaoyuan; Li, Yonghong

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.114343

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In contrast to our findings, a similar study by Zhang et al [ 4 ] of 30 cities in China found an N-shaped relationship between temperature and cumulative relative risk of influenza in northern China, with two peaks of influenza risk at both moderately low (around 5 °C) and high temperatures (around 30 °C). This result was not consistent with the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in northern China where influenza generally has only one peak in winter and spring (around −10 °C) shown in Figure 2 a.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

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Association between Temperature and Influenza Activity across Different Regions of China during 2010–2017

Wang

Lei

Wang

et al. 2023

Viruses

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Influenza causes a significant disease burden as an acute respiratory infection. Evidence suggests that meteorological factors can influence the spread of influenza; however, the association between these factors and influenza activity remains controversial. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature on influenza across different regions of China based on the meteorological data and influenza data from 554 sentinel hospitals in 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2017. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the exposure lag response of daily mean temperatures to the risk of influenza-like illness (ILI), influenza A (Flu A), and influenza B (Flu B). We found that in northern China, low temperatures increased the risk of ILI, Flu A, and Flu B, while in central and southern China, both low and high temperatures increased the risk of ILI and Flu A, and only low temperatures increased the risk of Flu B. This study suggests that temperature is closely associated with the influenza activity in China. Temperature should be integrated into the current public health surveillance system for highly accurate influenza warnings and the timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…Researchers have long studied how the climate affects the spread of influenza [ 3 , 4 ]. There is substantial evidence that meteorological and environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity can influence the dynamics of influenza virus transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between Temperature and Influenza Activity across Different Regions of China during 2010–2017

Wang

Lei

Wang

et al. 2023

Viruses

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“…Some studies found that the meteorological effects on host susceptibility (11) and viral survival (12) and the influence of social contact on ILI transmission (13) encourage the spread of ILI or influenza. In recent years, extensive environmental epidemiology studies have been conducted to quantify the relationship between ambient temperature and ILI/influenza (6,(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20). There is, however, a discrepancy among the results of the association between ambient temperature and ILI/influenza.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, one study in the Jiangsu Province of China showed that the association between temperature and the incidence of ILI presented an approximate “M” shape on the province-wide scale ( 6 ). While the association between temperature and influenza showed an approximate “S” shape in Wuhan ( 14 ), it showed an “L” shape in Guangzhou ( 15 ), and an “N” shape among 30 cities in China ( 20 ). In addition, most previous studies were focused on the association between ambient temperature and influenza, but few studies have been focused on the association between ambient temperature and ILI ( 3 , 6 , 21 ), especially in a multicity setting at the provincial level through multivariate meta-analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of ambient temperature on influenza-like illness: A multicity analysis in Shandong Province, China, 2014–2017

Yin

Liu

Tang

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundThe associations between ambient temperature and influenza-like illness (ILI) have been investigated in previous studies. However, they have inconsistent results. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of ambient temperature on ILI in Shandong Province, China.MethodsWeekly ILI surveillance and meteorological data over 2014–2017 of the Shandong Province were collected from the Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorological Data Service Center, respectively. A distributed lag non-linear model was adopted to estimate the city-specific temperature–ILI relationships, which were used to pool the regional-level and provincial-level estimates through a multivariate meta-analysis.ResultsThere were 911,743 ILI cases reported in the study area between 2014 and 2017. The risk of ILI increased with decreasing weekly ambient temperature at the provincial level, and the effect was statistically significant when the temperature was <-1.5°C (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00–1.54). We found that the relationship between temperature and ILI showed an L-shaped curve at the regional level, except for Southern Shandong (S-shaped). The risk of ILI was influenced by cold, with significant lags from 2.5 to 3 weeks, and no significant effect of heat on ILI was found.ConclusionOur findings confirm that low temperatures significantly increased the risk of ILI in the study area. In addition, the cold effect of ambient temperature may cause more risk of ILI than the hot effect. The findings have significant implications for developing strategies to control ILI and respond to climate change.

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“…This study did not evaluate the effect of influenza subtypes, which have been confirmed associated with meteorological factors ( Zhang, Chen, et al., 2022 ). The quantity and quality of influenza data may vary from city to city; for example, the reported cases in southern cities were more than in northern cities, which may affect the accuracy of the analysis( Zhang, Peng, et al., 2022 ). The mechanisms responsible for interactions between meteorological factors discussed may require further studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects and interaction of temperature and relative humidity on the trend of influenza prevalence: A multi-central study based on 30 provinces in mainland China from 2013 to 2018

Yin

Lai

Zhou

et al. 2023

Infectious Disease Modelling

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Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

Association between Temperature and Influenza Activity across Different Regions of China during 2010–2017

Association between Temperature and Influenza Activity across Different Regions of China during 2010–2017

Effects of ambient temperature on influenza-like illness: A multicity analysis in Shandong Province, China, 2014–2017

Effects and interaction of temperature and relative humidity on the trend of influenza prevalence: A multi-central study based on 30 provinces in mainland China from 2013 to 2018

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