Temperature and relative humidity trends in the northernmost region of South Africa, 1950–2016

Abstract

The northernmost Limpopo Province is located in one of the warmest regions of South Africa, where the agricultural sector is prone to heat stress. The aim of this study was to explore air temperature and relative humidity trends for the region, which have implications for agricultural adaptation and management (amongst other sectors). In particular, we investigated seasonal, annual and decadal scale air temperature and relative humidity changes for the period 1950–2016. Positive temperature trends were recorded for this period, averaging +0.02 °C/year, with the strongest changes observed in mean maximum summer temperatures (+0.03 °C/year). Interannual temperature variability also increased over time, especially for the period 2010–2016, which presents probability densities of <50% for minimum temperatures. Positive relative humidity trends (+0.06%/year) were also recorded for the period 1980– 2016, but proved to be the least predictable weather parameter, with probability densities of <0.5% across seasons for the study period. Considering the substantial interannual variability in temperature and relative humidity, there is clear increased risk for the agricultural sector, particularly for small-scale farmers who generally have limited capacity to adapt. Climate science focusing on the southern African region should continue to establish the impact of climate change and variability on specific small-scale farming systems and enterprises, with recommendations for strategic adaptation based on up-to-date evidence.

Insights from modelling sixteen years of climatic and fumonisin patterns in maize in South Africa

“…Analysis of climatic patterns over 16 years in this study shows increasing average temperatures over the study period, which is consistent with published research within the region and contributes to the wider conversation surrounding climate change. Nyoni et al 24 reported a similar temperature trend (rate of + 0.02 °C/year) as observed in this study in parts of South Africa between 1950 and 2016. According to James and Washington 25 , majority of Africa warms faster than what is noted in other parts of the world.…”

The Threats of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa

“…of our findings and buttressed by numerous scholarly works of literature includingEngelbrecht et al (2015);Nyoni et al (2021);Carcel et al (2015). Consistent with our findings confirmed that South Africa's annual surface mean temperature has increased by 02°C to 0.06°C per annum in the past two decades.…”