Expansion joints play a crucial role in accommodating the longitudinal movement of the main beam, which is mainly caused by temperature variation. This paper establishes an accurate model that relates the temperature field of the main beam to the displacement of the expansion joint, enabling reliable performance prediction and early warning of the expansion joint. Firstly, three commonly used methods for characterizing the temperature field of the main beam are introduced, along with their advantages and disadvantages. Secondly, a novel method is proposed using the Lasso algorithm to calculate critical temperatures. The objective is to select temperature channels data that have significant impact on the longitudinal displacement of the main beam. The selected channels data is then linearly weighted based on feature importance to obtain critical temperature. Based on this, a precise relationship model between the main beam temperature and the expansion joint displacement is derived through regression. For the residual term in the model fitting, an expansion joint performance early warning procedure is developed based on the X-bar control chart. Finally, using one-year long-term monitoring data from a newly constructed cable-stayed bridge as an example, the proposed method demonstrates superior capability in predicting the predefined damage of the expansion joint compared to the other two commonly used methods.