Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: a meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors

Abstract

The current effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are predicted to increase, with species responding by changing their spatial distributions. Marine ectotherms such as fish experience elevated distribution shifts, as temperature plays a key role in physiological functions and delineating population ranges through thermal constraints. Distributional response predictions necessary for population management have been complicated by high heterogeneity in magnitude and direction of movements, which may be explained by both biological as well as methodological study differences. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive synthesis of the interacting ecological factors influencing fish distributions in response to climate change and the confounding methodological factors that can affect their estimation. In this study we analyzed published studies meeting criteria of reporting range shift responses to global warming in 115 taxa spanning all major oceanic regions, totaling 569 three-dimensional population responses (latitudinal, longitudinal and depth), with temperature identified as a significant driver. Overall, studies on marine fish distributional responses have generally been of limited spatial and temporal scope, with comparisons among studies being complicated by large variation in methodology. We identified varying degrees of heterogeneity in latitudinal range shifts (km year-1) across ecological and methodological predictors, with multivariate regression analysis revealing response rate differences due to niche affinity, depth changes, as well as methodological biases due to different approaches in estimating and reporting latitudinal range shifts. Finally, we found strong geographical publication bias and limited taxonomical scope, highlighting the need for more representative and standardized research in order to address heterogeneity in distribution responses and improve predictions in face of changing climate.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

“…In addition, there is much to be learnt by studying range shifts in a community context (Lavergne et al., 2010), including through the lens of invasion biology by exploring the role of biotic resistance based on key functional traits (e.g., Miller et al., 2023). Accounting for the effects of different methods used to assess range shifts and reducing research biases : The influence of the estimation process on range shift detection is increasingly recognized and would benefit from being explicitly accounted for when trying to make inference on the role of species traits in large cross‐taxa analyses (e.g., Brown et al., 2016; Dahms & Killen, 2023; Lenoir et al., 2020). This is especially true as the choice and effect of methodological factors may covary with species traits (e.g., when species detectability varies with life history or behavioral traits), ultimately decreasing our power to explain range shifts.…”

“…The methods used to document range shifts influence the range shift estimates and our ability to detect meaningful relationships with species traits (Brown et al., 2016; Dahms & Killen, 2023; Lenoir et al., 2020). Similarly, research biases may not only result in an incomplete picture of which species and areas are vulnerable to climate change but also alter our comprehension of the underlying drivers of range shifts (Feeley et al., 2017; Lenoir et al., 2020).…”

“…On land, landscape fragmentation (both natural and anthropogenic) is likely to represent a major constraint on species redistribution but its influence is expected to vary with species‐specific habitat requirements, such that habitat generalists may be less constrained by habitat availability than more specialized species (Platts et al., 2019). In the ocean, the opportunities offered by habitat verticality in 3‐D habitats can mediate the rate of latitudinal range shifts by allowing species to locally exploit deeper ocean layers (Brito‐Morales et al., 2020), yet the rates of depth shifts likely depend on both the niche characteristics and fishing pressure exerted on the shifting species (Dahms & Killen, 2023).…”

Limited net poleward movement amongst Australian reef species over a decade of climate extremes.

“…Range shifts can cause changes to the structure of ecological communities as the influx of warmer water species into cooler climates results in altered species interactions and potential habitat change [5][6][7][8]. However, biodiversity monitoring programs in marine waters tend to be too small in temporal and spatial scale to make conclusions about species redistribution, requiring meta-analyses of multiple datasets to gather evidence from across many species, time periods and locations [9]. These analyses could be biased towards range extending species if studies from species and locations with few shifts observed are less frequently published.…”