Temperature-related disasters in Europe – a cross-sectional analysis of the emergency events database from a pediatric perspective

Abstract

This study investigates patterns of extreme temperature-related events in Europe and its significance for the public health, with a focus on the vulnerable pediatric population. A generalized additive model of average surface temperature development for the European countries is described and discussed with an in-depth analysis of the influence of temperature on evolutional and behavioral aspects. Methods: Extreme temperature related events are recorded in the publicly available epidemiological database of Emergency Events (EM-DAT). A comparative and descriptive statistical analysis of this data was conducted with a focus on (prospective) records from 1988 onwards. Average surface temperature data was provided by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. The criteria for strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology (STROBE) were respected. Results: Within EM-DAT, extreme temperature-related disasters in Europe were categorized as either heat waves, drought, forest or land fires, or cold waves and severe winter conditions, accordingly. The most frequent type of event recorded were cold waves (36.2%). However, cold waves and severe winter conditions only accounted for about 6,460 casualties (4.4%), while heat waves were responsible for a total of 137,533 casualties (95.1%). During the prospective observational period of the EM-DAT database, heat waves in 2003, 2006, 2010, and 2015, claimed a total of 119,760 casualties. These most severe heatwaves were geographically distributed over Russia (2010), as well as France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, each in 2003. Accordingly, analysis of temperature data revealed an increasing average surface temperature for all assessed European countries, correlating with in an increasing frequency of extreme temperature-related events. Conclusion: This study shows that according to EM-DAT data extreme temperatures are an increasingly important public health threat to the European population as the average European surface temperatures are rising. Although cold waves are more frequently reported in EM-DAT, heat waves are the major cause for temperature-related casualties. Therefore, we conclude that evolutional and cultural resilience against cold and drought is significantly higher than it is against heat. Our results project that the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves will further increase due to current climatic changes and become a more prevalent problem for future generations. Hence, we propose an emergency plan to inform the public and authorities about measurements to be taken in such extreme heat conditions to overcome the prevailing lack of information available to the public.