Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

Dell, Melissa; Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.

doi:10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Cited by 1,349 publications

(1,497 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The authors argue that, while it is difficult to find a direct effect of climate variability on migration flows, as shown by [53], climate anomalies spur international migration by reducing the agricultural share in the economy. However, one shortcoming of the analysis carried out in this paper is that, by using the agricultural share in GDP as a mediating variable, one can hardly explain whether the effect of climate change works specifically through the agricultural channel or, more generally, through its impact on the overall economic condition of the country, as pointed out by [37]. In addition, the 2SLS gravity specification is quite far from the standards that are normally adopted in the trade literature.…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…The relationship between weather variables (temperature and precipitation) and economic development, both in levels and in growth rates, has been analyzed by means of panel data methods in [35] and [36,37], where the authors found that the relationship between income and weather is significantly negative only in developing countries. It may be interesting to note that this relationship appears to be mainly driven by the negative effect of warming on agricultural output: an increase of 1 • C in average annual temperature translates to a 2.6 percentage point decrease in agricultural output.…”

Section: Panel Data Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Panel Data Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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“…Burke and Emerick (2013) use this long-difference (LD) model for climate related study for US agriculture, while Dell et al (2012) apply it to economic growth analysis. Naturally, d does not have to be a decade; it could be longer or shorter, just as long as it is long enough to capture local climate from annual weather variation.…”

Section: Estimation Through Annual Weather Variation and Mid-term CLImentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For US agriculture, Burke and Emerick (2013) used five-year periods of 1978-1982 and 1998-2002. For climate versus economic growth with country level global data Dell et al (2012) use fifteen year averages of 1970-1985 and 1985-2000. Due to the limited data span available for Russia, we will use two non-overlapping periods of 1995-2001 and 2002-2009.…”

Section: Estimation Through Annual Weather Variation and Mid-term CLImentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To make sure we specify the model correctly, we therefore include several control variables. Dell et al (2012) and Burke and Emerick (2013) rely only on region and time fixed-effect controls to avoid the so called over-controlling problem, which arises when we include control variables that are, in effect, the mechanism through which our variable of interest (climate) affects the dependent variable. To be prudent in including time-varying control variables, we therefore limit ourselves to variables already mentioned in the literature as important determinants of government expenditures.…”

Section: Model Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures: Evidence from Russia

Leppänen

Solanko

Kosonen

2015

Environ Resource Econ

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This paper explores an almost untouched topic in the fast-growing climate econometrics literature-the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995-2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but nonlinear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. In mild warming scenarios, according to our estimates Russia saves roughly USD 3-4 billion in regional government expenditures between 2000 and the 2020s without undertaking adaptation measures, depending on the scenario. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1-2 • C). Larger tem- perature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data.

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Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment

Kopp

Shwom²,

Wagner³

et al. 2016

Earth's Future

167

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The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic "tipping points" and large economic shocks, frequently called "catastrophes." The phrase "tipping points" in this context can be misleading. In popular and social scientific discourse, "tipping points" involve abrupt state changes. For some climatic "tipping points," the commitment to a state change may occur abruptly, but the change itself may be rate-limited and take centuries or longer to realize. Additionally, the connection between climatic "tipping points" and economic losses is tenuous, although emerging empirical and process-model-based tools provide pathways for investigating it. We propose terminology to clarify the distinction between "tipping points" in the popular sense, the critical thresholds exhibited by climatic and social "tipping elements," and "economic shocks." The last may be associated with tipping elements, gradual climate change, or nonclimatic triggers. We illustrate our proposed distinctions by surveying the literature on climatic tipping elements, climatically sensitive social tipping elements, and climate-economic shocks, and we propose a research agenda to advance the integrated assessment of all three.

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Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

Cited by 1,349 publications

References 42 publications

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures: Evidence from Russia

Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment

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