The erosion of a surface by a stream of solid particles is examined by considering the arrival times of the particles on the surface. The treatment first proposes a new concept, an 'impact zone', and then considers the arrival of the particles on one zone as a queuing process. The rate of erosion of ductile metals is predicted using simple arguments from probability theory. A comparison of the mechanisms of erosion has been made using this analysis as a basis for models. Results indicate that not all of the mechanisms are capable of predicting the incubation time effects which have been reported previously. Also discussed is the importance of the duration of the test and the concentration of eroding particles, or flux, striking the target. A recommendation is made for a new standard to be used when quoting flux levels in future publications.