Tempo-spatial dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany – A phase model based on a pandemic severity indicator

Abstract

While pandemic waves are often analyzed on the national scale, they typically are not distributed evenly in space. This working paper employs a novel approach to analyze the tempo-spatial dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic for the case of Germany. First, we base the analysis not just on the incidence of cases or mortality but employ a composite indicator of pandemic severity to gain a more robust understanding of the temporal dynamics of the pandemic. Second, we subdivide the pandemic during the years 0f 2020 and 2021 into fifteen phases, each with a coherent trend of pandemic severity. Third, we analyze the spatial patterns predominating in each phase. The resulting tempo-spatial phase model is used to identify explanatory factors for the tempo-spatial patterns identified in the analysis.