Temporal and Regional Differences and Empirical Analysis on Sensitive Factors of the Corn Production Cost in China

Abstract

The corn production cost (CPC) in China is related to national food security. However, there are few studies on the temporal and regional differences (TRD) and sensitive factors in the CPC. In this paper, the TRD of the corn production cost across various regions, as well as over the entirety of the country from 2008 to 2018, is presented. It is based on the GIS exploratory spatial data analysis method (ESDA). Simultaneously, a spatial panel model is established to conduct an empirical analysis of the main factors affecting the CPC. The results from the period in question show that the CPC in China and the three major production regions present a fluctuating growth trend, mainly associated with the increase in labor prices. Moreover, the CPC exhibits significant spatial differences, and demonstrates an overall trend of gradual increase from the east to the west. Over time, the number of relatively high-cost provinces has increased. All are located in southern mountainous and hilly corn areas. In addition, the CPCs of various regions are spatially correlated. Factors such as the scale of land management, the degree of mechanization, and socioeconomic conditions have a significantly negative impact on the CPC in China. Furthermore, the labor structure has a notably positive impact on the CPC.

Yellow corn wholesale price forecasts via the neural network

“…Forecasting agricultural commodity prices has always been a significant task for policy makers and different agricultural market participants (Ouyang, Hu, Yang, Yao, & Lin, 2022; Wang, Wang, Li, & Zhou, 2022; Xu, 2017, Xu, 2018). This could be particularly the case when one considers the fact that agricultural commodities generally carry with them natural importance from a strategic perspective to a country or region (Xu and Zhang, 2022).…”