Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought, future changes and possible drivers over Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, using SPI and SPEI

Gebremichael, Haftu Brhane; Raba, Gelana Amente; Beketie, Kassahun Ture; Feyisa, Gudina Legese

doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02743-3

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 83 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Moreover, the observed impacts of rainfall variability and drought severity on pastoral communities in the present study would be more pronounced in the near future (Kebede et al 2021). Therefore, a range of measures are expected to be implemented now and the projection of the likelihood of future drought occurrences should be conducted for the studied rangelands, to reduce the existential as well as the imminent threats of drought to pastoralist livelihoods (Eriksen and Marin 2011;Gebremichael et al 2022).…”

Section: Scientific and Policy Contributions Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 76%

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change and its variability adversely impact pastoral livelihoods, and understanding climate variability and its change is important to deduce policy implications for pastoral communities. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to investigate the temporal climate conditions and spatial patterns of drought across the rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana Zones, Southern Ethiopia. Temporal climate conditions were performed at the rangeland level, and spatial drought patterns (distributions) were estimated across the sample Kebeles (Kebele is the smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia which works in the Duda rangeland) and Reeras (Reeras refer to the smallest customary administrative unit in the Borana Zonal administration) structures. Station-satellite temperature and rainfall data (38 years from 1981 to 2018) were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency. For data analysis, the Mann–Kendall trend test was employed to test rainfall, temperature and drought patterns, while Sen’s slope was used to test their magnitude of change, and coefficient of variation was employed to estimate rainfall and temperature variability. Standardized precipitation index was used to estimate drought event, while inverse distance-weighted method was used to estimate spatial drought patterns. The study reveals very high temporal rainfall variability with notable disparities in the rangelands mainly attributed to climate change. Besides, the study area exhibits high spatial variability of drought signifying agro-ecological characteristics in the rangelands. In the Duda and Gomole rangelands, annual rainfall increased non-significantly by 0.01 and 0.03 mm per annum, respectively. The annual minimum temperature in both Duda and Gomole increased significantly by 0.008 and 0.007 ℃ per year, respectively, albeit the annual maximum temperature in the rangelands decreased non-significantly by 0.02 and 0.009 ℃ per annum. Both rangelands experienced high annual rainfall variability, increasing annual minimum temperature, drought frequency and severity. Therefore, the outcome of the study is believed to be vital for identifying drought hotspot areas in the rangelands and devising strategies that help to reduce drought impacts on pastoral communities in Southern Ethiopia.

show abstract

Section: Scientific and Policy Contributions Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 76%

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

where

represents the number of drought events during the selected time, and

represents the total number of months, i.e., 240 in the currently selected period of 20 years (2002–2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the drought characteristics computed in this study include the drought duration (DD) in number of months and the drought sum (DS), which defines the sum of all SPI values during a particular drought spell in months or years. The frequency of drought events is calculated by employing the equation [75,76] To investigate the intercorrelation between agricultural drought (SPI−3) and wheat yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was calculated on a regional scale. A polynomial regression model was deployed to offset climatic, economic, and technological factors [78,79].…”

Section: Drought Analysis 241 Drought Trend and Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Nxumalo

Bashir

Alsafadi

et al. 2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002–2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002–2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr–Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

show abstract

“…The duration of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) varies depending on the specific type of drought under analysis and the intended applications (Gebremichael et al, 2022). Thus, the interpretation of the SPI indicates analyzing anomalies, which denote deviations from the average total rainfall observed within each specific period.…”

Section: Computation Of the Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Statistical Functions for Rainfall Distribution Modelling and Spi Calculation in Mediterranean Watershed

BEROHO,

OUALLALI,

EL HALIMI

et al. 2024

AgricultForest

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drought indices are one of the most widely used methods for drought monitoring because of their ease of application and interpretation. The most commonly used drought index method is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, which uses precipitation as an input. The performance of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is affected by the choice of an incorrect probability distribution function, which can distort index values, exaggerating or minimizing drought severity. This study aims to test the suitability of the statistical distribution functions proposed by the Bootstrap model, which estimates the closest probability distribution for calculating the SPI at time scales (TS) of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Daily rainfall data collected at the Dar Chaoui meteorological station were used for the period 2000-2021. Distribution function parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method and then confirmed using the Bootstrap method. The results show several extremely dry picks, especially in the 9-and 12-month time scales.

show abstract

Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought, future changes and possible drivers over Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, using SPI and SPEI

Cited by 10 publications

References 83 publications

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

Temporal climate conditions and spatial drought patterns across rangelands in pastoral areas of West Guji and Borana zones, Southern Ethiopia

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Application of Statistical Functions for Rainfall Distribution Modelling and Spi Calculation in Mediterranean Watershed

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About