Temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation variability for annual, wet, and dry seasons in Turkey

Abstract

ABSTRACT:In the present study, annual, wet and dry seasons precipitation records for the period 1961-2008 from 271 stations in Turkey were analysed using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann-Kendall trend test and the continuous wavelet transform (WT) method. Additionally, relationships between time variability of the significant spatial patterns and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) are examined. The REOF method was used to analyse the annual, dry, and wet season variability of precipitation patterns over Turkey. The Mann-Kendall method was used to detect the temporal trend of the rotated principal components (RPCs) time series, and the continuous wavelet method was used to explore the periodicity of precipitation changes. Continuous WT results indicate that the significant 3-4 year, 6-10 year, and 12-16 year bands are the major period components. Precipitation in Turkey is uneven in space and time, and its complex temporal structure and spatial variations are different in each dry and wet season. The Mann-Kendall test results show that decreasing annual precipitation is the dominating trend throughout Anatolia, including west, and southwest sections. Increasing annual precipitation can be observed in only northeast Black Sea region of Turkey. Decreasing wet/dry season precipitation that we observe throughout the country, except northeast coasts and eastern parts of Turkey, is expected to have a strong impact on the economic livelihood of the region, especially on agricultural production, drinking water supply, and hydroelectricity production.

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