Temporal and spatial persistence in rainfall records from Northeast Brazil and Galicia (Spain)

Miranda, José García Vivas; Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Silva, A. B. da; Ferreira, Carla; González, Antônio Paz; López, Julio Pérez

doi:10.1007/s00704-003-0013-8

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Applications to a variety of fields in Geology and Geophysics are shown by Korvin (1992) and Turcotte (1997). Some applications in Climatology and more specifically to rainfall regimes can be found in Oñate (1997), Andrade (1999, 2001), Whiting et al (2003), Miranda et al (2004) and Martínez et al (2007a), among others. The predictability of the DSL series is quantified by interpreting the meaning of the Hurst exponent H .…”

Section: Rescaled Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Lana

Martínez²,

Serra

et al. 2010

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained by considering four thresholds, R 0 , of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity, randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem. First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe, sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely, three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean Sea.

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Section: Rescaled Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Lana

Martínez²,

Serra

et al. 2010

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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show abstract

“…Applications to a variety of fields in Geology and Geophysics can be found, for instance, in Korvin (1992) and Turcotte (1997). Some examples of analyses of rainfall series for different spatial domains at various time scales can be found in Oñate (1997), Andrade (1999, 2001), Whiting et al (2003) and Miranda et al (2004), among others. Very briefly, the rescaled process consists of the computation of mean values, cumulative differences, and after that, maximum range of the integrated signal, R(τ ), and standard deviations, S(τ ), for subsets of series with different number τ of consecutive elements.…”

Section: Predictabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability of the daily pluviometric regime in the Iberian Peninsula

Martínez¹,

Lana

Burgueño³

et al. 2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. The complexity of the daily pluviometric regime of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed from the point of view of its lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability. The database consists of daily pluviometric records obtained from 43 rain gauges in Spain and Portugal for the period . Five different series are generated for every rain gauge. The first series is constituted by the consecutive daily amounts. The other four consist of dry spell lengths with respect to daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A dry spell length is defined as the number of consecutive days with rainfall amounts below one of these thresholds. The empirical lacunarity for every rain gauge is well reproduced by two power laws, the exponents varying notably from one gauge to another. The spatial distribution of the lacunarity is characterised by a north to south or southeast gradient, thus suggesting that this parameter can be a useful tool to distinguish between different pluviometric regimes. The predictability of the five series is quantified by means of the rescaled analysis and the interpretation of the Hurst exponent. Its patterns reveal that most part of the Iberian Peninsula shows signs of persistence for the daily rainfall and the dry spell series, although persistence is only clearly manifested in some small domains. The instability of possible predictive algorithms is analysed through the Lyapunov exponents. They are only computed for the series of daily amounts and for dry lengths respect to the threshold level of 0.1 mm/day due to the short number of dry spells for larger threshold levels. The series of daily amounts depict the highest instability along the Mediterranean coast. The series of dry spells show an increasing instability from NE to SW Spain, with a relevant nucleus of high Lyapunov values in the south-western Atlantic coast. As a summary, lacunarity and Hurst and Lyapunov exponents depict a relevant spatial variation, which is in agreement with well known patterns of Correspondence to: X. Lana (francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu) the pluviometric regime, such as annual amount spatial distribution and return periods of dry spells.

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“…In this spatial evaluation of the fluctuation patterns, the values of D present the opposite trend 28 when compared to the temporal dynamics, with lower values of D for Parkinson subjects. This implies that the dynamics of 29 tremor in time may present different structure and fluctuation patterns, when compared with its spatial dynamics.…”

mentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Anti-persistent correlations are often related to negative feedback control mechanisms, 29 extensively found on regulation mechanisms in the human body [26,27]. For 0.5 < H < 1, the correlations are said to 30 be persistent.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%