Temporal Lag in Ecological Responses to Landscape Change: Where Are We Now?

Lira, Paula Koeler; Leite, Melina de Souza; Metzger, Jean Paul

doi:10.1007/s40823-019-00040-w

Cited by 68 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Yet, these patches can provide intra-node connectivity in the spatial-only case as they indeed exist in the landscape at time t 2 . From the ecological standpoint, such reductions in spatio-temporal connectivity relative to its spatial-only counterpart may also partly explain the 'colonization credit' (Lira et al 2019), which is an inverse concept to 'extinction debt' and refers to the number of individuals or species yet to colonize a focal habitat due to positive landscape changes. Hence, there should be many instances where spatio-temporal connectivity may provide less biased and more realistic estimates of habitat connectivity, given the presence of extinction debts and colonization credits (Kuussaari et al 2009, Lira et al 2019) and the stepping-stone effect across space and time (Saura et al 2014).…”

Section: Importance Of the Spatio-temporal Connectivity Given Differementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These approaches have also been employed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity and species persistence (Dilts et al 2016, Albert et al 2017, Rehnus et al 2018, Kanagaraj et al 2019. Most connectivity models rely on spatial snap-shots of landscape structure to generate static connectivity estimates; however, some species predicted to experience ARH decrease or increase do not actually have immediate population declines or growth as expected (Metzger et al 2009, Semper-Pascual et al 2018, Lira et al 2019). Such 'extinction debt' and 'colonization credit' phenomena (Tilman et al 1994, Lira et al 2019) require ecologists to consider temporal ecological processes going beyond a purely spatial perspective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

et al. 2020

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Climate change can affect the habitat resources available to species by changing habitat quantity, suitability and spatial configuration, which largely determine population persistence in the landscape. In this context, dispersal is a central process for species to track their niche. Assessments of the amount of reachable habitat (ARH) using static snap‐shots do not account, however, for the temporal overlap of habitat patches that may enhance stepping‐stone effects. Here, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the ARH using a spatio–temporal connectivity model. We first explored the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity relative to purely spatial connectivity in a changing climate by generating virtual species distributions and analyzed the relative effects of changes in habitat quantity, suitability and configuration. Then, we studied the importance of spatio–temporal connectivity in three vertebrate species with divergent responses to climate change in North America (grey wolf, Canadian lynx and white‐tailed deer). We found that the spatio–temporal connectivity could enhance the stepping‐stone effect for species predicted to experience range contractions, and the relative importance of the spatio–temporal connectivity increased with the reduction in habitat quantity and suitability. Conversely, for species that are likely to expand their ranges, spatio–temporal connectivity had no additional contribution to improve the ARH. We also found that changes in habitat amount (quantity and suitability) were more influential than changes in habitat configuration in determining the relative importance of spatio–temporal connectivity. We conclude that spatio–temporal connectivity may provide less biased and more realistic estimates of habitat connectivity than purely spatial connectivity.

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Section: Importance Of the Spatio-temporal Connectivity Given Differementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

et al. 2020

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“…Moreover, when vegetation is slow to react to disturbances, time lags occur between the cause and the effect [19][20][21]. Empirical evidence supports that these delayed ecological responses are prevalent in nature [22]. If the disturbance is severe enough, time lags cause a delay in the inevitable extinction of susceptible species, resulting in a debt that will be due in the future [23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The presence of these hidden extinction debts in landscapes reveals current landscapes with extant species potentially already doomed by past disturbances, a critical factor that should be incorporated in conservation and management strategies [16,24,25]. There are a few approaches to measuring and detecting extinction debts [22,26]. One way to detect extinction debts is by testing whether the current species richness patterns correlate better to past landscape variables [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The underrepresentation of studies on extinction debts in urban landscapes [22] and the opportunity to monitor changes over time prompted this study. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely to resample grassland plots surveyed in 1995 and 2012 [16] to determine whether the observed patterns and time lags have changed and to test whether urbanization is causing biotic homogenization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying Long-Term Urban Grassland Dynamics: Biotic Homogenization and Extinction Debts

2020

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Sustainable urban nature conservation calls for a rethinking of conventional approaches. Traditionally, conservationists have not incorporated the history of the landscape in management strategies. This study shows that extant vegetation patterns are correlated to past landscapes indicating potential extinction debts. We calculated urban landscape measures for seven time periods (1938–2019) and correlated it to three vegetation sampling events (1995, 2012, 2019) using GLM models. We also tested whether urban vegetation was homogenizing. Our results indicated that urban vegetation in our study area is not currently homogenizing but that indigenous forb species richness is declining significantly. Furthermore, long-term studies are essential as the time lags identified for different vegetation sampling periods changed as well as the drivers best predicting these changes. Understanding these dynamics are critical to ensuring sustainable conservation of urban vegetation for future citizens.

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Spatial targeting of woodland creation can reduce the colonisation credit of woodland plants

Hughes,

Kunin,

Ziv

et al. 2023

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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Colonisation credit refers to the temporal lag between positive conservation actions and species' responses and may be one of the reasons we fail to meet short‐term conservation targets. This is particularly evident in woodlands which take decades to develop and harbour slow colonising species. Given global objectives to increase woodland cover, it is important to know the timeframe within which colonisation credit will be fulfilled. The colonisation of woodland plants was examined in recent woodlands, created between 15 and 80 years ago, and located adjacent or isolated from existing ancient woodlands. Colonisation credit was calculated as the proportion of understory woodland plant species in the nearest ancient woodland which had not colonised recent woodlands. Looking at individual species traits also allowed us to tease apart their impact on the species colonisation and establishment ability. Spatial adjacency between created and ancient woodland reduced colonisation credit by an average of 28%, and more mature created woodlands (50–80 years old) had fulfilled 24% more of their colonisation credit on average than younger created woodlands (15–21 years old). However, mature woodlands created adjacent to ancient woodlands had still only been colonised by an average of 72% of the available species pool. Plants which had reached adjacent created woodlands were dispersed by a range of mechanisms, where those that had reached more isolated sites were largely dispersed by birds or mammals. Low community weighted mean shade tolerance, high community weighted nutrient affiliation, and the dominance of Hedera helix suggest that competition from dominant natives may be preventing certain species establishing in new woodlands. This research demonstrates the need to account for appropriate time‐lags when setting biodiversity targets, with most sites still displaying colonisation credit decades after they were created. The results also indicate that spatially targeting woodland creation adjacent to species‐rich mature woodlands should be prioritised. Still, poor local habitat conditions may lead to the dominance of specific competitors which prevent a range of other species from establishing. Local management interventions such as translocations and tree thinning may ameliorate this but further research is needed.

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Temporal Lag in Ecological Responses to Landscape Change: Where Are We Now?

Cited by 68 publications

References 44 publications

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

Importance of spatio–temporal connectivity to maintain species experiencing range shifts

Quantifying Long-Term Urban Grassland Dynamics: Biotic Homogenization and Extinction Debts

Spatial targeting of woodland creation can reduce the colonisation credit of woodland plants

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