Temporal–Spatial Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Forest Fires in the Tropic of Cancer (Yunnan Section)

Abstract

Forest fires often cause many casualties and property losses, and it is important to explore the time and space laws of forest fires and the influencing factors. The present study used the cities (prefectures) crossed by the Tropic of Cancer (Yunnan section) as the study area. Based on burned land data, a combination of natural factors, such as climate, topography, vegetation, and human activities, such as distance from settlements and population density, a binary logistic regression model, and a boosted regression tree model, were used to analyze the temporal–spatial characteristics and influencing factors of forest fires in 2000 to 2020. The following results were obtained: (1) During 2000–2020, the overall forest fire area in the study area showed a trend of fluctuating decline. The high incidence period of forest fires occurred in 2010. After 2010, the forest fire area in the study area was greatly reduced. (2) The forest fire area in the study area was greater in the east and less in the west. The forest fire areas in Wenshan Prefecture and Honghe Prefecture in the east were larger, accounting for 68%, and the forest fire areas in Pu’er City, Lincang City, and Yuxi City in the west were smaller, accounting for only 32%. (3) The contribution rate of the average precipitation and average temperature factors ranked in the top two in the two driving force analysis models, which indicated that precipitation and temperature had a significant effect on the incidence of forest fires in the study area.