Temporal Trends and Projection of Cancer Attributable to Human Papillomavirus Infection in China, 2007–2030

Abstract

Background: Information on temporal trends of cancer attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV) in China is limited. Methods: Cancer incidence and mortality during 2007-2015 were extracted from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report and the national population from the National Bureau of Statistics. HPV-attributable cancer burden and the average annual percentage change during 2007-2015 were estimated and cancer burden during 2016-2030 was projected. Results: HPV-attributable cancer cases have increased by 3.8% (95% CI: 2.9-4.8%) annually from 85,125 to 113,558 and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rose by 3.0% (95% CI: 2.5-3.5%) from 4.67 to 5.83 per 100,000 persons during 2007-2015. Cervical, female anal, and vulva cancer cases have increased by 3.8% (95% CI: 2.8-4.7%), 6.5% (95% CI: 1.2-12.2%), and 3.7% (95% CI: 1.6-5.8%) per year. Male anal and oropharyngeal cancer cases have elevated by 7.5% (95% CI: 2.8-12.5%) and 4.4% (95% CI: 2.4-6.3%) annually. The increases of cervical and anal cancer were most rapid among those aged 50 and older. HPV-attributable cancer deaths and mortality rate have risen by 4.7% (95% CI: 2.9-6.7%) and 3.3% (95% CI: 0.9-5.8%) respectively. HPV-attributable cancer cases and ASIR are projected to reach 214,077 and 9.35/100,000 persons by 2030 respectively, with 87.7% being cervical cancer, and anal cancer cases are expected to triple. Conclusions: HPV-attributable cancer burden has largely increased in the past and will keep rising for the next decade. Cervical cancer control should be the priority and anal cancer prevention should be addressed. Impact: This study supplies fundamental evidence for policy-making on HPV-attributable cancer control.

Status and epidemiological characteristics of high-risk human papillomavirus infection in multiple centers in Shenyang

“…Significant differences have been reported in HPV infection rates and types among people in different regions ( Duan et al, 2022 ). For example, the positivity rate, as well as the distribution and characteristics of the HPV types, differ in women of different ages and regions.…”

A national cross-sectional study on the influencing factors of low HPV vaccination coverage in mainland China

“…Persistent human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for cervical epithelial carcinogenesis. It is estimated that HPV-attributable cancer cases and age-standardized incidence rate will reach 214,077/100,000 and 9.35/100,000 respectively by 2030, of which 87.7% are cervical cancer in China ( 3 ). Cervical cancer has brought heavy economic and social burden.…”

Update on the Epidemiological Features and Clinical Implications of Human Papillomavirus Infection (HPV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Coinfection

“…Worldwide, 98,000 oropharyngeal SCCs were diagnosed in 2020 [ 59 ]. The incidence of oropharynx squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) also increased both in men and women by 0.6% per year in the last decade, reaching 11.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the United States [ 13 ]. Although tobacco and alcohol consumption—traditional risk factors for OPSCC—is declining, the incidence of this cancer type is increasing, owing to a higher rate of HPV-related OPSCC.…”

“…Notably, a decrease in cervix SCC is expected because of the scale-up of HPV vaccination among women [ 11 ]. Nonetheless, data concerning anal SCC is equivocal, and discrepancies might be detected around the world [ 12 , 13 ]. However, the incidence of anal SCC has increased in PLWH over the last few years, although future projections suggest these figures are stabilizing [ 13 , 14 , 15 ].…”

“…Nonetheless, data concerning anal SCC is equivocal, and discrepancies might be detected around the world [ 12 , 13 ]. However, the incidence of anal SCC has increased in PLWH over the last few years, although future projections suggest these figures are stabilizing [ 13 , 14 , 15 ]. Conversely, an increase in the incidence of HPV-driven oropharyngeal SCC is predicted in the coming years [ 16 ].…”