Temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors in Scotland, 2003–2008

Hamer, Mark; Kengne, A.P.; Batty, G. David; Cooke, Dennis; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

doi:10.1111/j.1464-5491.2011.03254.x

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Our finding that diabetes prevalence did not increase in continental western Europe (especially in northwestern Europe) is also consistent with reports from Sweden, 22 Germany, 23 and Switzerland 24 that covered a subset of our analysis years. Similarly, our estimated increases for high-income English-speaking countries are consistent with studies that had analysed repeated population-based surveys in the USA 25 and the UK 26, 27. A meta-analysis of 15 studies in Japan reported no increase in diabetes prevalence, 28 as observed in our analysis.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Zeng¹,

Lu²,

et al. 2016

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SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Zeng¹,

Lu²,

et al. 2016

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show abstract

“…Our reports are similar to the change in prevalence observed in the U.S. using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, which showed an increase in prevalence of diabetes of 51% over the period of 1988–1994 to 2005–2006 (11). More recently, a study in Scotland showed an increase of 80% in diabetes prevalence over the period of 2003–2008 (12). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the Increase of Diabetes Prevalence and Plasma Glucose in Mauritius

et al. 2011

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OBJECTIVEdSecular trends in the epidemiology of diabetes are best described by studying the same population over time, but few such studies exist. Using surveys from Mauritius in 1987 and 2009, we examined 1) the change in the prevalence of diabetes, 2) the extent to which changes in traditional diabetes risk factors explained the increase, and 3) the change in the distribution of plasma glucose levels over time.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSdIndependent population-based surveys were undertaken in Mauritius in 1987 and 2009 using similar methodology in adults aged 20-74 years. Physical measurements and fasting blood samples were taken, and an oral glucose tolerance test was performed at both surveys.RESULTSdThe age-standardized prevalence of diabetes in 2009 was 22.3% (95% CI 20.0-24.6) among men and 20.2% (18.3-22.3) among women, representing an increase since 1987 of 64 and 62% among men and women, respectively. Concurrent changes in the distribution of age, ethnicity, waist circumference, BMI, physical activity, smoking, family history of diabetes, and hypertension explained more of the increase in the prevalence of diabetes in men than in women. Increases in plasma glucose (especially fasting glucose) were seen across the population but were greater at the upper levels.CONCLUSIONSdIn Mauritius, there has been a marked increase in diabetes prevalence over 22 years. This mainly results from changes in traditional risk factors, leading to population-wide increases in plasma glucose levels. Interventions to control this escalation of diabetes should focus on population-wide strategies.

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“…Thus, the DM prevalence almost doubled during the following five years, namely 5.2% in 2000 and 9.4% in 2008, respectively [23].…”

Section: Dm and Prediabetes Prevalence/ Incidence In Different Countrmentioning

confidence: 98%

Data Regarding the Prevalence and Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus and Prediabetes

Sandu

Protasiewicz²,

Firănescu³

et al. 2016

Romanian Journal of Diabetes Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases

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Diabetes Mellitus (DM) represents one of the highest challenges in our century, due to the fact that in the last 20 years the number of patients with DM has doubled, at present affecting hundreds of millions of people worldwide, both in developed countries and in developing ones, as well. One of the most serious consequences of this increase is the onset of type 2 DM in children, adolescents and young people, the main causes being an unhealthy lifestyle: unhealthy food, lack of physical exercise, which, most of the times, lead to obesity. Also, DM is often associated to micro and macrovascular complications, thus determining disabilities and high costs in the healthcare systems, respectively. DM is one of the main causes of death all over the world, a reason for which there are required prevention programs worldwide.

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Temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors in Scotland, 2003–2008

Abstract: These results suggest nearly a doubling in the prevalence of diabetes over 5 years in Scotland.

Cited by 15 publications

References 10 publications

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Explaining the Increase of Diabetes Prevalence and Plasma Glucose in Mauritius

Data Regarding the Prevalence and Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus and Prediabetes

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