Temporal variability of social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

Abstract. A social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges is important for any coastal city to commence in order to provide marine disaster preparedness and mitigation procedures and to formulate post-disaster emergency plans for coastal communities. This study establishes an integrated evaluation system of social vulnerability by blending a variety of single evaluation methods, applying the idea of combination weighting and calculating the social vulnerability index of storm surges. Shenzhen, with a current reputation of having the most economic development potential and a representative city in China, is chosen to evaluate its social vulnerability to storm surges via a historical social and economic statistical dataset spanning from 1986 to 2016. The research extends further by analyzing the city’s temporal variability. Results reveal that social vulnerability keeps almost constant from 1986–1991 and 1993–2004, while it decreased sharply in the remainder of times to show a ‘stair-type’ declining curve over the past 30 years. Resilience is progressively increasing by virtue of a continuous increase in medical institutions, fixed asset investments and salary levels of employees. These determinants contribute to the overall downward trend of social vulnerability for Shenzhen. Exposure and sensitivity increased slowly with some fluctuation, causing the changes of social responsibility to transpire.