Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is variable. It has been recently proposed that an alkaline phosphatase (ALP) decline of more than 40% in baseline value or a normal level after 1 year of UDCA treatment (Barcelona criteria) could serve as a good marker of long-term prognosis. Our aim was to define the best efficient set of biochemistries able to identify UDCA-treated patients at risk of death or liver transplantation (