Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Tao, Hui; Jiang, Tong; Su, Buda; Yang, Jun; Wang, Guojie; Liu, Qiyong; Gao, Chao; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhan, Mingjin; Feng, Zhiqiang; Fischer, Thomas

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w

Cited by 154 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Moreover, some of these studies were based on the older climate projection scenarios [3,20] while others have not taken into account the demographic changes in the future [23] or considered only a limited number of climate and population change scenarios [22]. Some recent studies on mortality projection due to climate change take into account the population aging, but focus on heat-related impacts ignoring the cold-related impacts [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Rai

Breitner

Wolf

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher coldrelated deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change.Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century.Methods. We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083-2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990-2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging.Results. The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17. 35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths.Conclusion. The elderly population (age 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age<75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat-and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adapta...

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Rai

Breitner

Wolf

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The data also projected that heat stress would become a significant health hazard in >95% of countries in the world by the end of this century [27]. Climatic modelling using data from 27 cities in China projected an increase in the annual heat-related mortality by 1.5-2-fold (48.8-67.1/million) at 1.5 • C warming of mean surface temperature, and by 1.8-2.5-fold (59.2-81.3/million) at 2 • C warming of mean surface temperature [26]. The combined heat-related mortality among the 831 million inhabitants across the 27 cities would be >28,000 annually if mean surface temperature is increased by 1.5-2 • C [26].…”

Section: Impact Of Global Warming On Human Life and Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climatic modelling using data from 27 cities in China projected an increase in the annual heat-related mortality by 1.5-2-fold (48.8-67.1/million) at 1.5 • C warming of mean surface temperature, and by 1.8-2.5-fold (59.2-81.3/million) at 2 • C warming of mean surface temperature [26]. The combined heat-related mortality among the 831 million inhabitants across the 27 cities would be >28,000 annually if mean surface temperature is increased by 1.5-2 • C [26]. In south Korea, heat related mortality in 2090 was projected to increase by 5.1-fold under a 3-4 • C increase in surface temperature, and by 12.9-fold if surface temperature is increased by >4 • C [29].…”

Section: Impact Of Global Warming On Human Life and Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The international community recognizes global warming as an impending catastrophe that will cause irreversible damage to the environment and also threatens life on earth [26,27]. The unprecedented rate and scale of destruction on the environment is so severe in the last century that scientists acknowledged the beginning of new geological epoch, known as the Anthropocene age, which replaces the current Holocene age that existed for 11,700 years before it was formally adopted in 1885 [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming

Lim

2020

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The international community has recognized global warming as an impending catastrophe that poses significant threat to life on earth. In response, the signatories of the Paris Agreement (2015) have committed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to < 1.5 °C from pre-industry period, which is defined as 1950–1890. Considering that the protection of human life is a central focus in the Paris Agreement, the naturally endowed properties of the human body to protect itself from environmental extremes should form the core of an integrated and multifaceted solution against global warming. Scholars believe that heat and thermoregulation played important roles in the evolution of life and continue to be a central mechanism that allows humans to explore, labor and live in extreme conditions. However, the international effort against global warming has focused primarily on protecting the environment and on the reduction of greenhouse gases by changing human behavior, industrial practices and government policies, with limited consideration given to the nature and design of the human thermoregulatory system. Global warming is projected to challenge the limits of human thermoregulation, which can be enhanced by complementing innate human thermo-plasticity with the appropriate behavioral changes and technological innovations. Therefore, the primary aim of this review is to discuss the fundamental concepts and physiology of human thermoregulation as the underlying bases for human adaptation to global warming. Potential strategies to extend human tolerance against environmental heat through behavioral adaptations and technological innovations will also be discussed. An important behavioral adaptation postulated by this review is that sleep/wake cycles would gravitate towards a sub-nocturnal pattern, especially for outdoor activities, to avoid the heat in the day. Technologically, the current concept of air conditioning the space in the room would likely steer towards the concept of targeted body surface cooling. The current review was conducted using materials that were derived from PubMed search engine and the personal library of the author. The PubMed search was conducted using combinations of keywords that are related to the theme and topics in the respective sections of the review. The final set of articles selected were considered “state of the art,” based on their contributions to the strength of scientific evidence and novelty in the domain knowledge on human thermoregulation and global warming.

show abstract

“…Studies have shown that high temperatures can lead to fatigue, dizziness, increased breathing, and increased heart rate [3]. More serious situations can even endanger life and cause death [4]. An urban park is a main place for outdoor activities of citizens and also an important part of urban green space system, which plays an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect and improving the outdoor thermal comfort.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Outdoor Thermal Comfort of Urban Park—A Case Study

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Urban parks are an important component of urban public green space and a public place where a large number of urban residents choose to conduct outdoor activities. An important factor attracting people to visit and stay in urban parks is its outdoor thermal comfort, which is also an important criterion for evaluating the liability of the urban environment. In this study, through field meteorological monitoring and a questionnaire survey, outdoor thermal comfort of different types of landscape space in urban parks in Chengdu, China was studied in winter and summer. Result indicated that (1) different types of landscape spaces have different thermal comforts, (2) air temperature is the most important factor affecting outdoor thermal comfort; (3) because the thermal sensation judgment of outdoor thermal comfort research in Chengdu area, an ASHRAE seven-sites scale can be used; (4) the neutral temperature ranges of Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Chengdu in winter and summer were obtained through research; (5) and UTCI is the best index for evaluating outdoor thermal comfort in Chengdu. These findings provide theoretical benchmarks and technical references for urban planners and landscape designers to optimize outdoor thermal comfort in urban areas to establish a more comfortable and healthy living environment for urban residents.

show abstract

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Cited by 154 publications

References 53 publications

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming

Outdoor Thermal Comfort of Urban Park—A Case Study

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About