Tentative Prediction of Harmful Algal Blooms in Yangtze Estuary

Abstract

By using spatial autoregressive models, this paper mainly studied the limited factors and spatio-temporal prediction of harmful algal blooms (HAB). The environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), dissolved organic matter (DOM) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were used to model the chlorophyll a (Cha) distribution and the occurrence of HAB. The results indicated that SST had no significant influence on the growth of phytoplankton in May and June, but higher SST in July and August decreased the frequency of occurrence of HAB. SSC was the main limited factor of HAB, and considerably and positively influenced the algal growth and HAB. HAB in Yangtze estuary was mainly caused by nutrients not DOM. The predicted spatial pattern in July 2010 was more dispersed than the actual clustered pattern. This clustered pattern should be driven by the combined impacts of coastal current, Taiwan Worm current and the northward seasonal.