Tephra Fallout Probabilistic Hazard Maps for Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha Volcanoes (Ecuador) With Uncertainty Quantification

Tadini, Alessandro; Azzaoui, Nourddine; Roche, Olivier; Samaniego, Pablo; Bernard, Benjamin; Bevilacqua, Andrea; Hidalgo, Silvana; Guillin, Arnaud; Gouhier, Mathieu

doi:10.1029/2021jb022780

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 111 publications

(196 reference statements)

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“…This eruption has been the focus of multiple studies which compared the observed and modelled values of: (a) column height [40]; (b) column mass load (i.e., the integration of the mass of the ash cloud along the atmospheric vertical levels; [51,58]); and (c) ground deposit measurements (thickness and mass loading, [52,59]); mass loading and grain sizes [40]. This eruption involved magma of rhyolitic-rhyodacitic composition [53], lasted until June 2012 [54], and comprised both explosive and effusive activity [55].…”

Section: The 2011 Puyehue-cordón Caulle Eruptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Particle Sedimentation in Numerical Modelling: A Case Study from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011 Eruption with the PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT Models

et al. 2022

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Numerical modelling of tephra fallout is a fast-developing research area in volcanology. Several models are currently available both to forecast the dispersion of volcanic particles in the atmosphere and to calculate the particles deposited at different locations on the ground. Data from these simulations can then be used both to manage volcanic crises (e.g., protect air traffic) or perform long-term hazard assessment studies (e.g., through hazard maps). Given the importance of these tasks, it is important that each model is thoroughly tested in order to assess advantages and limitations, and to provide useful information for quantifying the model uncertainty. In this study we tested the coupled PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT models by applying them to the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 sub-Plinian eruption. More specifically, we tested new features recently introduced in these well-established models (ash aggregation, external water addition, and settling velocity models), we implemented a new inversion procedure, and we performed a parametric analysis. Our main results reaffirm the pivotal role played by mass eruption rate on the final deposit and show that some choices for the input parameters of the model can lead to the large overestimation in total deposited mass (which can be reduced with our inversion procedure). The parametric analysis suggests a most likely value of the mass eruption rate in the range 2.0–6.3 × 106 kg/s. More studies with a similar approach would be advisable in order to provide final users with useful indications about the parameters that should be carefully evaluated before being used as input for this kind of model.

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Section: The 2011 Puyehue-cordón Caulle Eruptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The two models have been also used recently by Ref. [51] to develop tephra fallout hazard maps. Given its large application in such critical fields, new developments of the models need to be tested rapidly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Particle Sedimentation in Numerical Modelling: A Case Study from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011 Eruption with the PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT Models

et al. 2022

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“…This could be a byproduct of the use of the VEI scale, something that is done with two objectives, to reduce the computational time costs (by producing fewer simulations) and to better communicate the results (Selva et al, 2018). Nevertheless, hazard assessments should strive to obtain the spatial distribution probabilities of volcanic phenomena through the simulation of several scenarios that should be continuous or semi-continuous in size, and non-dependent on the major divisions of the VEI scale (e.g., Sandri et al, 2016;Biass et al, 2017;Charbonnier et al, 2020;Clarke et al, 2020;Tadini et al, 2022). Therefore, the gaps between the size of the selected and simulated scenarios should not differ by order of magnitude (e.g., 10 7 , 10 8 , 10 9 m 3 ), instead, the gaps should be smaller, and more scenarios should be produced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aleatoric variability within the volume of a volcanic phenomenon has been explored in various previous studies (Sandri et al, 2016;Biass et al, 2017;Charbonnier et al, 2020;Tadini et al, 2022). For example, Sandri et al (2016) explore the intra-size variability of tephra fallout by following the discretization of the erupted mass parameters into bins with an interval of 0.1 on the magnitude (M) scale (Pyle, 2015); Biass et al (2017) explore the intra-size variability of tephra fallout by producing thousands of simulations with different erupted mass values chosen stochastically (Monte Carlo method) from within a range of values; Tadini et al (2022) explore the intra-size variability of tephra fallout by simulating a continuous distribution of erupted mass values; Charbonnier et al (2020) explore the intra-size variability of PDCs by producing a discretization of the volume, by increasing by 10 6 m 3 the volume of all simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most model-based volcanic hazard assessments focus on a single type of volcanic phenomena, for example, tephra fallout (Biass and Bonadonna, 2013;Biass et al, 2014Biass et al, , 2016aBiass et al, , 2017Bonasia et al, 2014;Sandri et al, 2016;Selva et al, 2018;Vásquez et al, 2019;Hayes et al, 2020;Michaud-Dubuy et al, 2021;Tadini et al, 2022;Titos et al, 2022) or PDCs (Sandri et al, 2018;Tierz et al, 2018;Charbonnier et al, 2020;Clarke et al, 2020;Esposti Ongaro et al, 2020;Flynn and Ramsey, 2020;Spiller et al, 2020). Double-hazard assessments focus on tephra fallout along with other types of volcanic phenomena, such as lava flows (Marrero et al, 2019;Gjerløw et al, 2022) or PDCs (Alcorn et al, 2013;Tennant et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A GIS-based multi-hazard assessment at the San Pedro volcano, Central Andes, northern Chile

et al. 2022

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Recent advances in the modeling of volcanic phenomena have allowed scientists to better understand the stochastic behavior of volcanic systems. Eruptions can produce various types of volcanic phenomena of different sizes. The size of a given volcanic phenomenon dominates its spatial distribution and is commonly represented by volume/mass parameters in the models that reproduce their behavior. Multi-hazard assessments depend on first-order parameters to forecast hazards at a given geographic location. However, few multi-hazard assessments consider the size of the eruption (e.g., tephra fallout) to co-parameterize the size of the accompanying phenomena (e.g., mass flows) in a given eruptive scenario. Furthermore, few studies simulate multi-phenomenon eruptive scenarios with semi-continuous variations in their size, something that allows a better quantification of the aleatoric variability of the system. Here, we present a multi-hazard assessment of the San Pedro volcano, a high-threat volcano from northern Chile, that produced two large-size Plinian eruptions (VEI 5 and 6) in the last 16 ka, and ten Strombolian eruptions (VEI 2) between 1870 and 2021 CE, with the latest occurring on 2 December 1960 CE. We use intra-scenarios (i.e., subdivisions of eruptive scenarios) to explore the size variability of explosive volcanic phenomena. The size of intra-scenarios is extrapolated from the largest-size deposits of each type of phenomenon from the geologic record of the San Pedro volcano. We simulate explosive intra-scenarios for tephra fallout, concentrated PDCs, and lahars, and effusive scenarios for blocky lava flows. On the local scale, mass flows are likely (66–100%) to affect transport and energy infrastructure within a 14 km radius of the volcano. On the regional scale, large-size eruptions (VEI 5) in the rainy season are about as likely as not (33–66%) to accumulate 1 cm of tephra on energy, transport, and mining infrastructure over a 50 km radius, and these same eruptions are unlikely (10–33%) to accumulate 1 cm of tephra on the city of Calama. This work shows how multi-phenomenon intra-scenarios can be applied to better quantify the aleatoric variability of the type and size of volcanic phenomena in hazard assessments.

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Hazard assessment and monitoring of Ecuadorian volcanoes: challenges and progresses during four decades since IG-EPN foundation

Hidalgo,

Bernard,

Mothes

et al. 2023

Bull Volcanol

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Tephra Fallout Probabilistic Hazard Maps for Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha Volcanoes (Ecuador) With Uncertainty Quantification

Cited by 13 publications

References 111 publications

Particle Sedimentation in Numerical Modelling: A Case Study from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011 Eruption with the PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT Models

Particle Sedimentation in Numerical Modelling: A Case Study from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011 Eruption with the PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT Models

A GIS-based multi-hazard assessment at the San Pedro volcano, Central Andes, northern Chile

Hazard assessment and monitoring of Ecuadorian volcanoes: challenges and progresses during four decades since IG-EPN foundation

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