Term Structure Fitting Models and Information Content: An Empirical Examination in Taiwanese Government Bond Market

Abstract

In this study, we apply empirical methodologies, which are essentially curve fitting techniques, and use cross-sectional bond price data to estimate and analyze the Taiwanese government bond (TGB) term structure of interest rates. We choose two economic models: the Vasicek model and the CIR model, and one mathematical model: the B-spline approximation function, as the discount bond function to extract the term structure from market coupon bond prices. To assess the fitting performances and investigate the economic information content of the term structure fitting models, we compare the estimation errors and examine whether trading mis-priced bonds according the fitting model, can provide excess returns. The hypothesis is that the mathematical model can fit the term structure better than the economic models. But the economic models, which contain economic information, are able to explain the term structure dynamics. Thus the economic models can perform better in identifying mis-priced bonds and in predicting excess trading returns, than the mathematical model. Using the methodologies in this study, we can investigate the term structure fitting problems and look at the economic information content of the term structure fitting models.