It is well-documented that well-being typically evinces precipitous
decrements at the end of life. However, research has primarily taken a
postdictive approach by knowing the outcome (date of death)
and aligning in retrospect how well-being has changed for people with documented
death events. In the present study, we made use of a predictive
approach by examining whether and how levels of and
changes in life satisfaction prospectively predict
mortality hazards and delineate the role of contributing factors, including
health, perceived control, and social orientation. To do so, we applied shared
parameter growth-survival models to 20-year longitudinal data from 10,597
participants (n = 1,560 or 15% deceased; age at
baseline: M = 44 years, SD =
17, range: 18–98 years) from the national German
Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). Our findings showed that lower levels and
steeper declines of life satisfaction each uniquely predicted higher mortality
risks. Results also reveal moderating effects of age and perceived control: Life
satisfaction levels and changes had stronger predictive effects for mortality
hazards among older adults. Perceived control is associated with lower mortality
hazards; however, this effect is diminished for those who experience accelerated
life satisfaction decline. Variance decomposition suggests that predictive
effects of life satisfaction trajectories were partially unique
(3–6%) and partially shared with physical health, perceived
control, and social orientation (17–19 %). Our discussion
focuses on the strengths and challenges of a predictive approach to link
developmental changes (in life satisfaction) to mortality hazards and considers
implications of our findings for healthy aging.