Terrorism and tourism in Israel

Abstract

While the relation between terrorism and tourism has been an important topic for tourism research, the questions whether terrorism affects tourism immediately and how long after a terrorism event tourism recovers are, as yet, not clearly answered. The aim of this article is to better understand the magnitude and temporal scale of the impact of terrorism on tourism. To this end, a research model differentiating between short-term and long-term effects of terrorism on tourism is developed and analyzed for the destination Israel using data on tourists from Germany. The results show both short-term and long-term impacts with a time lag between the terrorist event and the beginning of tourism decline of 1 or up to 6 months. An economic influence on the development of tourist arrivals was not detected, but seasonality plays an important role in the relationship between terrorism and tourism.

Inbound tourism demand elasticities of MENA countries: the role of internal and external conflicts

“…Karl et al. (2017) conduct an empirical investigation to better understand the magnitude and temporal scale of the terrorism impact on tourism.…”

“…As such, the study hypothesizes this objective by investigating the potential effects of conflicts vis-a-vis external conflict (EXTC) and internal conflict (INTC) on tourism demand measured by the international tourism receipts (RITR) of the MENA countries. Various studies have established empirical relationships between tourism and various political risk variables such as terrorism (Samitas et al, 2018;Karl et al, 2017), political instability (Holguin, 2005;Buda, 2016) and conflict (Neumayer, 2004;Saha and Yap, 2014). However, none of these studies differentiate between conflict categories.…”

“…Various studies have established empirical relationships between tourism and various political risk variables such as terrorism (Samitas et al. , 2018; Karl et al. , 2017), political instability (Holguin, 2005; Buda, 2016) and conflict (Neumayer, 2004; Saha and Yap, 2014).…”

Semiparametric APC analysis of destination choice patterns: Using generalized additive models to quantify the impact of age, period, and cohort on travel distances

“…Alterations in travel behavior are also caused by external factors of the macro environment simultaneously affecting people of all ages (Pennington-Gray and Spreng, 2002). These period effects comprise various factors including single events such as terror attacks, which have shortand long-term impacts on travel behavior (Karl et al, 2017), pandemic crises (Romagosa, 2020), as well as long-term trends such as economic developments in the source market (Wong et al, 2016), technological advances in transportation (Castro et al, 2020), and mobile technology (Cohen et al, 2014) or climate change (Go ¨ssling et al, 2012). While modern developments in transportation permanently encourage long-distance travel, events such as economic downturns can deter people from traveling overseas (Sun and Lin, 2019).…”

Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism

“…Although during periods of frequent terrorist attacks, there were months with very few or no terrorist casualties or attacks (e.g., there were roughly 10 people injured in February 2003 and in July 2003, at a time when …gures in most months were in the hundreds), we use a backward-looking 12-month moving average for all terrorism indicators because …nancial data and turmoil are inherently persistent while the e¤ects of terrorism could last a long time (Marsden, 2012;Bandyopadhyay et al, 2014;Karl et al, 2017). The moving average accounts for high volatility by correctly identifying the respective months as part of periods with high instability.…”