Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Using a time series method called 'transfer function', this paper examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey.Transfer function, Turkey, Terrorism, Tourism, Economic impact, 9/11, Second Persian Gulf War,

The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country

“…The author concluded that tourists choose alternative destinations with similar characteristics but that are more stable (Neumayer, 2004). While examining the effects of terrorism on tourism activity in Turkey, Yaya (2009) found strong evidence that terrorism events in the country have affected the industry and that the Madrid bombings had a positive effect on tourist arrivals in Turkey. This happened because tourists perceive those two countries as close substitutes for one another (Yaya, 2009).…”

“…While examining the effects of terrorism on tourism activity in Turkey, Yaya (2009) found strong evidence that terrorism events in the country have affected the industry and that the Madrid bombings had a positive effect on tourist arrivals in Turkey. This happened because tourists perceive those two countries as close substitutes for one another (Yaya, 2009). Other studies concluded that while some countries experience a negative indirect effect, terrorist attacks increase tourism demand in other neighboring countries that are known for their low or moderate risk level (Saha & Yap, 2014).…”

Do Political Instability, Terrorism, and Corruption Have Deterring Effects on Tourism Development Even in the Presence of Unesco Heritage? A Cross-Country Panel Estimate

“…Tourists' safety is always vulnerable to terrorist-related incidents and internal conflicts in host countries. In the tourism literature, most empirical research reveals that tourism is susceptible to terrorism acts, particularly if terrorist attacks happen in developing countries (Baker & Coulter, 2007;Bhattarai, Conway, & Shrestha, 2005;Llorca-Vivero, 2008;Thompson, 2011;Yaya, 2009). advantageous because such data provide more information, more variability, less collinearity among the variables, more degrees of freedom, and more efficiency (Baltagi, 2008).…”

Impact of Terrorism on FDI Flows to Pakistan

“…They found that terrorism deterred tourists from some, but not all countries. Between January 1997 and December 2006, terrorism caused a decline of six million tourists in Turkey, which reduced tourism spending by $700 million in 2006 alone (Yaya, 2009). …”