Testing Balance-of-Power Theory in World History

Wohlforth, William C.; Little, Richard; Kaufman, Stuart J.; Kang, David C.; Jones, Charles; Hui, Victoria Tin-bor; Eckstein, Arthur M.; Deudney, Daniel; Brenner, William L.

doi:10.1177/1354066107076951

Cited by 107 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Classic balance of power theory has been a focus of much attention among international relations scientists for more than a century (Hume, 1965;Waltz, 1979;Wohlforth, Little, & Kaufman, et al 2007). Levy (2008:1) considers "The central proposition of balance-of-power theory (albeit one that has never been tested systematically) is that great powers balance against hegemonic threats."…”

Section: Theoretical Approach and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia-Ukraine balance of military power

Johannesson

2017

Journal of International Studies

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Abstract. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses balance of military power analysis to report findings on the plausible outcome of a war between Ukraine and Russia. I report findings based on realist theoretical perspectives that indicate Russian victory is unlikely because of relative balance of power where Russia has to face multiple threats diverting its military power while Ukraine can concentrate its military power for a single purpose. The findings suggest implication for policy in Russia, Ukraine, EU and the United States of America.

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Section: Theoretical Approach and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia-Ukraine balance of military power

Johannesson

2017

Journal of International Studies

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“…Laut Mearsheimer ( 1990 ) versuchen Staaten ständig, ihre relative Machtposition auf Kosten anderer Staaten zu verbessern, weswegen Zusammenarbeit höchstens kurzfristig entstehen könnte. Andere Realisten, speziell balance of power -Theoretiker, sind in diesem Punkt weniger pessimistisch und sehen auch Chancen für längerfristige Kooperation, speziell im Angesicht einer Bedrohung durch eine überlegene dritte Macht (Levy 2004, Wohlforth et al 2007.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Dangerous Davids. How weak states threaten their neighbors

Lambach

2009

ZS Aussen Sicherh. Polit.

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Zusammenfassung: Seit einiger Zeit werden fragile und zerfallene Staaten als Bedrohung der internationalen Sicherheit angesehen. Dabei bleibt jedoch unklar, ob diese Staaten auch die Sicherheit ihrer Nachbarländer bedrohen. Während Ansätze aus der Realistischen Schule diese Frage eher verneinen, lässt sich auch eine gegenteilige Antwort geben, die in der Tendenz von Bürgerkriegen zur geographischen Ausweitung eine Gefahr für die Region sieht. Der Artikel kontrastiert diese beiden Perspektiven und entwickelt daraus Hypothesen, wie sich Staaten in der Nachbarschaft eines fragilen Staates diesem gegenüber verhalten werden. Schlüsselwörter: Staatszerfall · Sicherheitstheorie · Regionale Sicherheit · Konfl ikteskalation Dangerous Davids. How weak states threaten their neighborsAbstract: For some time, fragile and failed states are presented as threats to international security. What remains unclear is whether these states also represent a threat to the security of their immediate neighbors. While the Realist School would tend to answer this question in the negative, an alternative viewpoint can plausibly be constructed by reference to the tendency of civil wars to spill across borders. This article contrast these two perspectives and develops hypotheses about the behavior of states that are in the vicinity of a fragile state.

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“…Such contingency approach to researching plausible outcomes of conflicts and strategies has been advocated in the literature [7] [8] [9]. Proposition: contingencies and consequences of the war are negatively affecting Russia more than Ukraine.…”

Section: Theory and Propositionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle

Johannesson¹

2017

JSS

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses a contingency theory approach to report findings on the riddle why Russia has not easily defeated Ukraine. I report findings based on a contingency theoretical perspective that indicates Russian victory is unlikely because of negative contingencies having direct impact on the Russian economy including a sharp reduction in the value of the Russian ruble, the potential for political loss of support of the middle class for President Putin, diplomatic and political isolation and danger of escalation of the war, affecting Russia to a greater degree than the Ukraine.

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Testing Balance-of-Power Theory in World History

Cited by 107 publications

References 35 publications

Russia-Ukraine balance of military power

Russia-Ukraine balance of military power

Dangerous Davids. How weak states threaten their neighbors

Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle

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