Testing inter‐observer reliability of the Transition Analysis aging method on the William M. Bass forensic skeletal collection

Fojas, Christina; Kim, Jieun; Minsky-Rowland, Jocelyn D; Algee‐Hewitt, Bridget F. B.

doi:10.1002/ajpa.23342

Cited by 19 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 74 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Although skeletal variation increases between 45 and 75 years of age, it appears to decrease after this time, as reflected in a narrowing of predicted age intervals (Getz, 2017; Jooste et al, 2016; Maaranen & Buckberry, 2018; Milner & Boldsen, 2012c)4. Additionally, there appears to be acceptably low inter‐observer error in most trait scores (Fojas et al, 2018; Jooste et al, 2016), which indicates that results can be reliably compared among observers. Furthermore, two paleodemographic applications of the method to archaeological samples from Postclassic Cholula and Contact‐Period Xochimilco Mexico (Bullock et al, 2013) and Late Classic Copan in Honduras (Storey, 2007) demonstrated the utility of the method for improving our assessment of past populations.…”

Section: Transition Analysis As a Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This finding indicates that the ad hoc correction for trait correlations is not entirely successful. Applications to modern documented samples also show that TA age ranges are often too broad to be useful and point estimates exhibit systematic age‐estimation bias (i.e., overestimation of age in young adults, and increasing underestimation of age in older adults) (Fojas et al, 2018; Getz, 2017; Jooste et al, 2016; Milner & Boldsen, 2012c). This bias primarily results from the failure of change in the cranial sutures and pelvic joints to keep pace with chronological age after around age 50 (Milner & Boldsen, 2012c; Saunders, Fitzgerald, Rogers, Dudar, & McKillop, 1992).…”

Section: Transition Analysis As a Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The output of the method is individualized age-at-death estimates for each skeleton based on the features available, their character states, and user-selected information (i.e., sex, ancestry1, and prior distribution). Since its publication, the method has gained in popularity and has demonstrated its utility in modern (Fojas, Kim, Minsky-Rowland, & Algee-Hewitt, 2018;Getz, 2017;Jooste, L'Abbe, Pretorius, & Steyn, 2016;Milner & Boldsen, 2012c), as well as historical and archaeological contexts (Boldsen, 2007;Bullock, Márquez, Hernández, & Ruíz, 2013;DeWitte, 2010;Getz, 2017;Maaranen & Buckberry, 2018;Wilson, 2014;Wittwer-Backofenet al, 2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The use of transition analysis in skeletal age estimation

Getz

2020

WIREs Forensic Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ability to produce accurate and precise age-at-death estimates from adult skeletal remains is critical for both forensic and bioarchaeological analyses. Despite many decades of investigation, anthropologists are still heavily reliant on methods that fail to adequately capture biological variation in skeletal aging and produce estimates that are insufficient for most applications. The Transition analysis (TA) by Boldsen et al. (2002) refers to a broad category of statistical approaches used to generate probabilistic information from binary or ordinal reference data as well as a specific method, Transition Analysis (TA) (Boldsen et al. 2002), that combines components of the cranial sutures and pelvic joints. The TA method uses free software to generate age estimates from the available trait scores, a statistical correction for the use of correlated features, and information about population mortality structure. Variations of the transition analysis approach have also applied to data from traditional ageestimation methods, isolated areas of the skeleton, and many features distributed throughout the body. Investigations of TA and other transition analysisbased approaches on archaeological, historic, and modern remains have demonstrated significant improvements in our ability to document skeletal variation, produce estimates in the upper half of the adult lifespan, and investigate patterns of mortality in the past. Despite these improvements, several challenges remain, including wide age intervals and systematic age-estimation bias, particularly for individuals in the youngest and oldest portions of adulthood. Moving forward, component-based approaches capable of producing individualized, probabilistic estimates using new skeletal features and userfriendly software are needed.

show abstract

Section: Transition Analysis As a Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Transition Analysis As a Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The use of transition analysis in skeletal age estimation

Getz

2020

WIREs Forensic Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The researchers validated this method: the inter‐observer error percentage rates were low (0.80–3.09), and the accurate classifications ranged from 78% to 90.6%. [44] As seen in FA‐HEP level 2, IRR calculations were often used to assess the reliability of inter‐expert conclusions (e.g., [33]).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within many level 2 forensic anthropology publications, interrater reliability (IRR) measures were used in order to understand the reliability of researcher data (see [33,34]). Cohen's Kappa, Fleiss' Kappa, and Krippendorf's Alpha are only a few examples of IRR calculations [35][36][37][38].…”

Section: Level 2 Inter-expert Reliability Of Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A hierarchy of expert performance as applied to forensic anthropology

Hartley

Winburn

2021

Journal of Forensic Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Due to their medicolegal repercussions, forensic anthropology conclusions must be reliable, consistent, and minimally compromised by bias. Yet, a synthetic analysis of the reliability and biasability of the discipline's methods has not yet been conducted. To do so, this study utilized Dror's (2016) hierarchy of expert performance (HEP), an eightlevel model aimed at examining intra-and inter-expert reliability and biasability (the potential for cognitive bias) within the literature of forensic science disciplines. A systematic review of the forensic anthropology literature was conducted (1972-present), including papers published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology, Forensic Anthropology, Forensic Science International, and the Journal of Forensic Sciences and Anthropology Section abstracts published in the Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the AAFS which matched keywords such as "forensic anthropology," "bias," "reliability," "cognition," "cognitive," or "error." The resulting forensic anthropology HEP showcases areas that have ample research and areas where more research can be conducted. Specifically, statistically significant increases in reliability (p < 0.001) and biasability (p < 0.001) publications were found since 2009 (publication of the NAS report).Extensive research examined the reliability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 744 publications). However, minimal research investigated the biasability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 20 publications).Notably, while several studies demonstrated the biasing effect of extraneous information on anthropological morphological assessments, there was no research into these effects on anthropological metric assessments. The findings revealed by the forensic anthropology HEP can help to guide future research, ultimately informing the development and refinement of best-practice standards for the discipline.

show abstract

A paleodemographic assessment of mortality and fertility rates during the second demographic transition in rural central Indiana

Zoeller

Drew

Schmidt

et al. 2021

American J Hum Biol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objectives: Since its inception, skeletally based paleodemographic research has emphasized the utility of biocultural models for interpreting the dynamic relationship between the sociocultural and ecological forces accompanying demographic transitions and shaping populations' health and well-being. While the demographic transition associated with the Neolithic Revolution has been a common focus in bioarcheology, the present study analyzes human skeletal remains from a large 19th century cemetery in central Indiana to examine population dynamics during the second demographic transition, a period generally characterized by decreasing fertility rates and improvements in life expectancy. This study demonstrates the potential to methodologically identify regional variations in the timing and interactions between broad-scale socioeconomic changes and technological advancements that characterized the time period through observed changes in survivorship and fertility based on age-at-death distributions.Materials and methods: This study uses three temporally distinct samples (AD 1827(AD -1869 1870-1889 1890-1935 from the Bethel Cemetery (n = 503). Kaplan-Meier survival analyses with a log-rank tests are utilized to evaluate survivorship and mortality over time. Next, Cox proportional hazard analyses are employed to examine the interaction between sex and time as covariates.Finally, the D0-14/D ratio is applied to estimate fertility for each of the three temporally bounded cohorts. Results:The Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard modeling revealed statistically significant differences in survivorship between the three time periods. Age-specific mortality rates are reduced among adult female and male age classes in this rural community over the course of the 19th and early 20th centuries, resulting in the increasing life expectancies

show abstract

Testing inter‐observer reliability of the Transition Analysis aging method on the William M. Bass forensic skeletal collection

Abstract: These results support the use of the TA method by researchers of varying experience levels. Further, they validate its use on forensic cases, given the low error overall.

Cited by 19 publications

References 74 publications

The use of transition analysis in skeletal age estimation

The use of transition analysis in skeletal age estimation

A hierarchy of expert performance as applied to forensic anthropology

A paleodemographic assessment of mortality and fertility rates during the second demographic transition in rural central Indiana

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About