Testing the climate resilience of sorghum and millet with time series data

Abdullah, Karim; Abukari, Abdul-Basit Tampuli; Abdulai, Abdul-Malik

doi:10.1080/23311932.2022.2088459

“…Intercropping legumes with sorghum, millet, or maize raise soil fertility by fixing atmospheric nitrogen which conserves nutrients for higher productivity of cereals [79]. While sorghum, millet, and cowpea are well-known as climate-resilient crops in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah, tubers, such as sweet potato, attain high prominence in the Guinean zone because of their short-term growth cycle [80]. However, our findings indicated a decreasing yield trend for sweet potato in Bolgatanga.…”

Section: Effects On Agricultural Yieldmentioning

confidence: 60%

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Schultze,

Kankam,

Sanfo

et al. 2024

Land

4

0

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Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies have evaluated impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are still associated with climate extremes as well as the rapid population growth and corresponding dietary lifestyle. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, and population growth in three sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. Climate and agricultural time series were analyzed by using boxplots mixed with a Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Conversely, the climate regime of southwestern Ghana revealed a strong significant increasing temperature over time. Crop yield trends demonstrated that maize and sorghum were significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward yield trend. The grouped food balance sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit. Despite the growing yield of various crops, food demand is outpacing regional production.

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“…Intercropping legumes with guinea corn, millet or maize will raise soil fertility by fixing atmospheric nitrogen that conserves nutrients for higher productivity of cereals [79]. While guinea corn, millet and cowpea are well-known as climate-resilient crops in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah, tubers such as sweet potato attain high prominence in the Guinean zone because of its short-term growth cycle [80]. However, our findings indicated a decreasing yield trend for sweet potato in Bolgatanga.…”

Section: Effects On Agricultural Yieldmentioning

confidence: 63%

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Schultze,

Kankam,

Sanfo

et al. 2023

Preprint

0

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Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies evaluated food production gaps or impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are associated with climate extremes, but also rapid population growth and the corresponding dietary lifestyle determine farming activities. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, as well as population growth in three experimental sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. The method consists of a tiered approach that encompassed a statistical analysis of historical climate as well as agricultural time series using boxplots and a trend test by Mann-Kendall. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. Results of the boxplot analysis revealed for the majority of climate time series light to strong right-skewed distributions with either a few heavy rainfall or hot temperature events. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. The rainfall regime of southwestern Ghana indicated an insignificant upward or downward trend while the temperature significantly increased over time. Crop yield boxplots demonstrated mainly right-skewed distributions for cereals, legumes and tubers as well as cash crops such as cotton. Backed by the Mann-Kendall test, maize and sorghum significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward trend at a confidence level of 1%. The grouped food balances sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah ranging from 221.2 megatons (Mt) to 4,846.77 Mt while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit between -193.33 Mt and -16,188.82 Mt. Despite a growing yield of various crops, food demand outpaces the regional production. Hence, it is recommended to focus on a larger array of commodities, imports and marketing of farm products.

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“…These two climate variables have a significant effect on crops and their yield. Although rainfall affects agricultural production in terms of photosynthesis and leaf area, temperature affects the length of the growing season [7,10,20,[22][23][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][32]34,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. It is important to highlight other indicators, which were found in some articles, such as (i) drought 7.9% (5/63), (ii) humidity 1.5% (1/63), (iii) evaporation 1.5% (1/63) [12], as consequences of temperature and precipitation.…”

Section: Impact Of Variable Climate On Crop Yieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The consequences of these shifts extend to staple crops such as maize, sorghum, and millet, impacting their yields and growing seasons [9]. Millet and sorghum, renowned for their resilience to arid conditions emerge as crucial crops in the face of changing climatic conditions, offering potential avenues for adaptation in regions prone to water stress [10,11]. However, the overarching trend of warming poses challenges to the hydrological cycle, altering precipitation patterns and exacerbating drought conditions [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Angola: Systematic Literature Review

Correia,

Amraoui,

Santos

2024

Agronomy

2

0

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The changing global climate, characterized by rising surface air temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and heightened occurrences of extreme weather events, is anticipated to profoundly impact the environment, economy, and society worldwide. This impact is particularly acute in African nations like Angola, where crucial sectors, such as agriculture, rely heavily on climate variability and exhibit limited adaptive capacity. Given that the majority of Angola’s agriculture is rain-fed and serves as a vital source of livelihood for the populace, the country is especially vulnerable to climate change, particularly in its southern region. Climate change has caused severe damage in Angola, especially in the southern part of the country, where the worst droughts in decades have affected over 3.81 million people, resulting in food and water shortages. Between 2005 and 2017, climate-related disasters cost the country about 1.2 billion US dollars, further exacerbating the economic and social challenges faced by the population. This study presents a systematic review of the effects of climate change on agriculture in Angola, with a focus on the southern region. Employing the PRISMA2020 methodology, the review examined 431 documents from databases such as Scopus and Web Science, spanning from 1996 to 2023, with 63 meeting inclusion criteria. The review reveals a paucity of research on the short and long-term impacts of climate change on Angolan agriculture. Projections indicate a rise in temperatures and a general decrease in precipitation, with the southern region experiencing a more pronounced decline. Agricultural productivity may suffer significantly, with models suggesting a potential 7% reduction by 2050.

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Testing the climate resilience of sorghum and millet with time series data

Cited by 7 publications

References 49 publications

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Angola: Systematic Literature Review

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