Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup

Abstract

Trading data from the gambling market for the 2002 World Cup provide a unique window through which to test theories of market efficiency. This market provides many of the benefits of a laboratory experiment, but with much higher stakes, experienced participants, and a naturally-occurring environment. The primary drawback of the data is the relatively small number of trades. The evidence concerning market efficiency is mixed. Although markets respond strongly to goals being scored, there is some evidence that prices continue to trend higher for 10-15 minutes after a goal. We also observe systematically negative returns for bets on the pre-game favorite, consistent with the biases seen in wagering on other sports. We document the endogenous emergence of market makers. These market makers are involved in a large share of trades. Increasing from two active market makers to five or more market makers does not appear to improve the functioning of the market. On average, the market makers earn slightly negative returns, implying that other traders are able to identify situations in which market makers are setting inefficient prices

Demand for live betting: An analysis using state‐space models

“…14 Despite this excellent setting for investigations into how market participants and markets respond to news, the respective dynamics have hardly been investigated to date, with some exceptions which investigate the efficient market hypothesis using data from betting exchanges, where bettors bet against each other rather than bookmakers. [15][16][17] Specifically, these studies analyse prices (i.e., betting odds) directly after goals were scored to check whether betting markets immediately incorporate such events into their prices.…”

“…Compared to pre‐game betting and financial markets, live betting markets are in fact better suited for analysing the effect of news on a market's activity level, (i) since bets have a well‐defined endpoint after which their value becomes observable, 13 (ii) as major news such as goals refer to a single identifiable point in time, which is very rarely the case for the multitude of news on financial markets, and (iii) as news in a live betting market become immediately available to all market participants due to the live coverage on the Internet 14 . Despite this excellent setting for investigations into how market participants and markets respond to news, the respective dynamics have hardly been investigated to date, with some exceptions which investigate the efficient market hypothesis using data from betting exchanges, where bettors bet against each other rather than bookmakers 15–17 . Specifically, these studies analyse prices (i.e., betting odds) directly after goals were scored to check whether betting markets immediately incorporate such events into their prices.…”