Testing the performance of ice thickness models to estimate the formation of potential future glacial lakes in Austria

Otto, Jan‐Christoph; Prasicek, Günther; Binder, Daniel; Keuschnig, Markus

doi:10.1002/esp.5266

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…An emerging trend in GLOF research is tied with the identification of locations suitable for future lake formation. Considering sustained glacier retreat under different representative concentration pathways or complete deglaciation, several recent studies have attempted to locate potential future lakes and quantify their volumes, for instance in the Swiss Alps (Gharehchahi et al, 2020), in the Austrian Alps (Otto et al, 2021), in High Mountain Asia (Furian et al, 2021;Zheng et al, 2021c) and on the global scale (Frey et al, 2021). Recent progress also highlights the need to consider the impacts of increasing sedimentation on future glacial lakes under a changing climate (Li et al, 2021;Steffen et al, 2022).…”

Section: Recent Progress In Lake and Glof Inventoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.

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Section: Recent Progress In Lake and Glof Inventoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Emmer

Allen

Carey

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…However, ice thickness models generally are robust in detecting the location and estimating the shape of subglacial overdeepenings (Linsbauer et al, 2012;Linsbauer et al, 2016). Drawing conclusions about future lakes actually forming from overdeepenings is difficult, but appears to be more consistent for valley glaciers (Otto et al, 2021). For our study, valley glaciers are indeed more important, as we concentrate on large future lakes that develop mostly beneath those glaciers.…”

Section: Uncertainty Assessment and Data Qualitymentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Other research concentrated on assessing the hazard potential of existing glacial lakes at a local (Lala et al, 2018;Sattar et al, 2021) or regional scale (Rounce et al, 2017;Veh et al, 2020). Otto et al (2021) have evaluated the performance of ice-thickness models for the estimation of future lakes in Austria. Their study shows that the amount of subglacial overdeepenings alone may lead to an overestimation of the potential for future glacial lakes because overdeepenings may fill up with sediment rather than water.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia

2022

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In High Mountain Asia (HMA), rising temperatures and retreating glaciers are leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. The sudden release of water from such lakes can lead to devastating glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) threatening people and infrastructure for many kilometers downstream. Therefore, information on future glacial lakes, e.g., their location, area and volume as well as the timing of their development, is vital for sustainable development of settlements and infrastructures. In this study, we present comprehensive estimates for future glacial lake development in HMA with unprecedented temporal resolution. We rely on an ensemble of fifteen global climate models using the newest CMIP6 data and employ a set of four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. With the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we use a modeling framework that explicitly simulates glacier dynamics in order to model glacier change until 2100 and estimate the formation period for each of the 2,700 largest future glacial lakes (>0.1 km2) in HMA. We estimate the glacial lake area in the entire region to grow by 474 ± 121 km2 for SSP126 and 833 ± 148 km2 for SSP585. Following recent estimates of currently existing glacial lakes (>0.1 km2), this would constitute an increase in lake area of ∼120–∼210% in 2100 compared to 2018. The lake volume is expected to increase by 22.8 ± 6.7 km3 for SSP126 and 39.7 ± 7.7 km3 for SSP585. This range includes a drastic tenfold increase in lake volume, from estimated 3.9 km3 in 2018 to 43.6 ± 7.7 km3 in 2100. However, there is a considerable spread between total and relative increase in glacial lake area and volume for different sub-regions of High Mountain Asia. As both, lake area and lake volume, could to lead to an increase in GLOF risk, the results emphasize the urgent need for more localized, in-depth studies at especially vulnerable locations in order to enable local communities to adapt to emerging challenges, to implement risk minimization measures, and to improve sustainable development in High Mountain Asia.

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“…Typically, there are three approaches to studying the ice formation process: a full energy budget, a linear heat transfer 55 approximation and a simple temperature index (Hicks 2016;Otto et al 2022). Zhaka et al (2021) comprehensively reviewed the models used in calculating ice thickness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations of ice thickness in a reservoir along Irtysh River: field measurement and regression analysis

Han

Kang

Zhao

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper presents the analysis results of temperatures collected at three monitoring stations which were used to study ice freezing and thawing processes on a reservoir along Irtysh River. The measured temperatures were comprehensively analyzed and correlated with air temperature measured at a meteorological station. The results showed that air temperature was closely related to temperature at the ice surface, e.g., T40, T20 and T0, and temperatures in ice almost increased linearly with depth. In addition, ice thicknesses were calculated based on measured temperatures along arrays of temperature and compared with that calculated using a simplified Stefan’s model. The results indicated that ice thickness varied spatially and temporally, and Stefan’s model overestimated the ice thicknesses with a maximum discrepancy of 12 cm. Moreover, the calculated ice thickness was correlated with temperatures, variations of temperature and accumulated freezing degree days (AFDD) based on Pearson correlation analysis, showing that ice thickness was proportional to AFDD with a coefficient of 0.89, and negatively correlated with T0, T−3, and Tice(c) with coefficients of −0.69, −0.73 and −0.62, respectively. Therefore, linear and non-linear models were proposed, which were validated using datasets from three stations in Russia and Finland, demonstrating that the linear model incorporating AFDD and T0 can capture local ice freezing and thawing processes with a relatively minor discrepancy, and the results were consistent at different stations. The paper provides an approach to comprehensively study the ice formation process and a practical model to calculate local ice thickness.

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Testing the performance of ice thickness models to estimate the formation of potential future glacial lakes in Austria

Cited by 11 publications

References 79 publications

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective

Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia

Variations of ice thickness in a reservoir along Irtysh River: field measurement and regression analysis

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