Thailand’s mid-century greenhouse gas emission pathways to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius target

Abstract

Background The Paris Agreement aims at minimizing threats of climate change by keeping global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are developed to investigate GHG emission pathways. RCP2.6 focuses on limiting the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius. This paper assesses the impacts of carbon price and CCS on energy and GHG emissions in Thailand. The no carbon price (T0) and the carbon price pathways are compared. In addition, the net-zero emissions and year are discussed. Results The decarbonized energy system with low-carbon power generation and increased electricity usage in the final energy consumption is the main pillar of GHG mitigation. Imposing carbon prices; increasing solar, wind, and biomass electricity generation; energy efficiency improvements in power generation; and energy savings in the industry and the building sectors, will be the key options for clean power generation in the carbon prices (CT) scenarios. Renewable electricity, coal and natural gas, coupled with CCS and bio-energy with CCS (BECCS) will be utilized significantly to curb GHG emissions. The increase of renewable energy and the electrification of end-use plays a key role in reducing GHG emissions. Fuel switching from diesel to biodiesel, energy efficiency improvement and electric pick-ups and trucks will help reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Conclusions There are three major policy implications to meet Thailand’s 2 degrees Celsius target. First, carbon prices will be the mechanism to accelerate the transformation in the energy sector. Wind and solar electricity will be key pillars of clean electricity in 2050. Policy-makers should update the renewable electricity plans to meet Thailand’s 2 degrees Celsius target in 2050. Second, coal- and gas-fired plants, and BECCS will become important options in reducing CO2 emissions. The policy-makers should investigate the application of CCS in the power sector and the storage location. Third, a major transformation in the transport sector is critically needed. Liquid biofuel and electrification in pick-ups, sedans, and trucks will help reduce GHG emissions.

The Role of Pre-Commitments and Engle Curves in Thailand’s Aggregate Energy Demand System

“…Focusing on the long-term energy policies, refs. [18,19] examined whether Thailand's existing energy efficiency plan (EEP2015) and renewable energy plan (AEDP2015) can achieve the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing GHG emissions by 20% from the business-as-usual level by 2030. Even though [18,19] considered different sectors, they reached similar conclusions that the implementation of the plans can lead to the achievement of the NDC target.…”

“…Ref. [18] suggested that energy labeling and monetary incentives are the most effective measures in the building and industrial sectors. Measures suggested by [19] consisted of developing energy efficiency, encouraging the exploitation of renewable energy and advanced technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), stimulating renewable electricity generation and motivating public awareness in climate change.…”

Thailand’s net-zero emissions by 2050: analysis of economy-wide impacts

“…There exist few studies on the potential of GHG emission reduction and pathways towards net-zero emissions in Thailand (Rajbhandari et al 2019 ; Rajbhandari and Limmeechokchai 2021 ; Bahadur Pradhan et al 2022 ; Chaichaloempreecha et al 2022 ; Limmeechokchai et al 2023 ). The focus of these studies varies in terms of analyzing the macroeconomic effects of limiting the GHG emissions in the pathways to achieve 2 and 1.5 °C targets (Rajbhandari et al 2019 ); exploring the possibilities of achieving the carbon neutrality of the energy system (Rajbhandari and Limmeechokchai 2021 ); analyzing the technological implications and exploring the energy transition required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 (Bahadur Pradhan et al 2022 ); assessing the impacts of carbon price and CCS on energy and GHG emissions of Thailand in the pursuit of achieving the 2 °C target (Chaichaloempreecha et al 2022 ); and analyzing the energy and macroeconomic impacts of GHG emission reduction beyond the NDC targets (Limmeechokchai et al 2023 ). However, the potential of GHG mitigation technologies and their economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero GHG emissions in Thailand have not been sufficiently evaluated.…”

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

“…Due to the debts caused by the import of natural gas and petroleum product, the widespread smuggling of hydrocarbons, and the environmental damage and restrictions on the use of shale resources, Mexico has prioritized sustainable energy supply from renewable sources (Hernández Ibarzábal and Bonilla, 2020). In another study, Acceria et al showed that implementing policies such as energy labeling, building energy codes and maximizing energy storage in the designed buildings and developing advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) greatly contribute to reducing Thailand’s carbon emissions per capita (Chaichaloempreecha et al , 2019). Full implementation of renewable energy projects has led to the improvement of energy security and the creation of more jobs in South Korea, in addition to reducing GHG emissions (Hong et al , 2019).…”