Thawing Permafrost in Arctic Coastal Communities: A Framework for Studying Risks from Climate Change

Abstract

Thawing permafrost creates risks to the environment, economy and culture in Arctic coastal communities. Identification of these risks and the inclusion of the societal context and the relevant stakeholder involvement is crucial in risk management and for future sustainability, yet the dual dimensions of risk and risk perception is often ignored in conceptual risk frameworks. In this paper we present a risk framework for Arctic coastal communities. Our framework builds on the notion of the dual dimensions of risk, as both physically and socially constructed, and it places risk perception and the coproduction of risk management with local stakeholders as central components into the model. Central to our framework is the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration. A conceptual model and processual framework with a description of successive steps is developed to facilitate the identification of risks of thawing permafrost in a collaboration between local communities and scientists. Our conceptual framework motivates coproduction of risk management with locals in the identification of these risks from permafrost thaw and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Toward a Permafrost Vulnerability Index for Critical Infrastructure, Community Resilience and National Security

“…The PVI provides an understanding of spatially explicit interactions with respect to permafrost vulnerability that enhances recent modeling toolbox efforts for permafrost landscapes [73]. The PVI is not advanced as an alternative to qualitative assessments to permafrost risk for Arctic communities but can compliment risk frameworks that are based on firsthand qualitative interactions (e.g., [74]) or fieldwork that encapsulates narratives of local realities of permafrost degradation [75]. Further advancements in the knowledge about how permafrost thaw and community adaptations to new physical conditions interact will come from a concerted systems science approach because SETS present interrelationships that should be considered when assessing hazard, threat, risk, vulnerability, and resilience.…”

Permafrost and groundwater interaction: current state and future perspective

“…The Arctic, subarctic, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) zones are facing severe transformations as a result of climate change (Immerzeel et al, 2010;Rowland et al, 2010;Wu et al, 2013;Luo et al, 2019;Doloisio and Vanderlinden, 2020;Larsen et al, 2021). Warming occurs significantly faster in higher latitudes and QTP than elsewhere in the world (Jia et al, 1958;Khare and Khare, 1968;Flohn, 1980;Manabe et al, 1991;McBean et al, 2005;Turner et al, 2007).…”

Permafrost Degradation in the Ice-Wedge Tundra Terrace of Paulatuk Peninsula (Darnley Bay, Canada)

“…In addition, accelerated permafrost degradation is an emerging issue for Arctic societies and infrastructure stability, posing new challenges in civil engineering (Hjort et al, 2022;Liew et al, 2022). There is a need to better identify signs of permafrost degradation, in order to inform and promote adaptation policies in concerned communities (Irrgang et al, 2019;Larsen et al, 2021). A common landform widely distributed in lowland permafrost terrain are ice-wedge polygons formed by the infiltration of melt water into surficial winter contraction ground-cracks, which then freezes and pushes the soil laterally, growing by the succession of cracking and freezing cycles (Black, 1976;MacKay, 2002;Fritz et al, 2016;Kanevskiy et al, 2017;Frappier and Lacelle, 2021).…”