The 1994 EU Referendum in Norway: Continuity and Change

Abstract

In the 1994 EU referendum a majority of Norwegian voters rejected membership in the European Union. The outcome contrasts with victories for membership in the corresponding referendums in Austria, Finland and Sweden. The article reports a preliminary investigation of factors relating to the support for “no”. Analysis of aggregate data (representing 435 municipalities) and survey data demonstrates the importance of traditional cleavages as well as new cleavages for the vote. The no‐vote was strongest in northern Norway, among supporters of the traditional “counter‐cultures” and among those employed in the primary sector. Women were more likely to vote no as were public sector employees. The major parties took relatively clear stands on the issue, and we find that party identification shows a strong correlation with the vote in the referendum. With a turnout of 89 percent, the 1994 referendum represents an all‐time high for elections in Norway. Compared with the previous referendum on the EC in 1972, we find that the increase in mobilization was particularly strong in the no‐dominated periphery, but the shift in mobilization patterns was not decisive for the outcome of the referendum.

Single Cases or a Unique Pair? The Swiss and Norwegian ‘No’ to Europe

“…As it did in 1972, the EU issue in 1994 revitalized the otherwise declining cleavages in Norwegian politics (Pettersen et al, 1996;Sogner and Archer, 1995).…”

Referendum Democracy

“…Territorial, cultural, and economic cleavages can also be used to explain the vote during the referendums on EU membership. Other cleavages, such as gender and sector of employment, have also been linked to referendum voting, with women and those in the public sector more likely to vote no (Pettersen, Jenssen, and Listhaug 1996;Gilljam, 1996;Ringdal and Valen, 1998).…”

“…In a detailed study in Norway, the effect of party identification on the vote has been measured in a multivariate model (Pettersen, Jenssen, and Listhaug, 1996). After controlling extensively for a variety of cleavages, the research demonstrated that party support had a significant impact on the referendum vote.…”

“…The model includes important indicators of traditional class, aspects of region and urban structure, as well as new cleavages of gender and sector of employment. The comparative nature of the model means that we have dropped some cleavages that are specific to Norway, such as some aspects related to traditional culture (Pettersen, Jenssen, and Listhaug, 1996).…”

A Struggle for the Agenda?

“…These links were still intact 30 years later. Attitudes towards the EU were related to several cleavages (Pettersen et al, 1996;Bj0rklund, 1997: ch. 6).…”