The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy

Pfeiffer, Alexander; Millar, Richard; Hepburn, Cameron; Beinhocker, Eric D.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.093

Cited by 167 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…An emergent feature of the CMIP5 fullcomplexity ESMs appears to be that this increase in airborne fraction approximately cancels the logarithmic relationship between CO 2 concentrations and radiative forcing, yielding an approximately linear relationship between cumulative CO 2 emissions and CO 2 -induced warming (Matthews et al, 2009;Gillett et al, 2013). This relationship has given rise to the concept of an all-time cumulative "carbon budget" to restrict warming to a certain level , which has quickly become an important tool in evaluating the required energy-system transitions that are needed to limit warming to below particular thresholds (Gignac and Matthews, 2015;Van Vuuren et al, 2016), as well as the climate implications of the existing capital stock (Davis and Socolow, 2014;Pfeiffer et al, 2016). As simple climatecarbon-cycle models are often used to compute particular carbon budgets in integrated assessment scenarios (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typical global surface temperature and atmospheric CO 2 responses displayed by more complex Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of emission scenarios, as well as an ability to sample the range of ESM response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) to explicitly represent the state dependence of the CO 2 airborne fraction. Our adapted model (FAIR) reproduces the range of behaviour shown in full and intermediate complexity ESMs under several idealised carbon pulse and exponential concentration increase experiments. We find that the inclusion of a linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change substantially improves the representation of the response of the climate system to CO 2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

et al. 2017

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“…For instance, Bertram et al (2015) and Pfeiffer et al (2016) propose to rule out investment in standard coal and gas power plants, and to mandate new power plants to be renewable power, nuclear, or fossil fuel plants equipped with carbon capture and storage.…”

Section: Decentralization With Feebate or Standards On New Investmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Instrument Choice and Stranded Assets in the Transition to Clean Capital

Rozenberg

Vogt-Schilb

Hallegatte

2017

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To mitigate climate change, some governments opt for instruments focused on investment, like performance standards or feebates, instead of carbon prices. We compare these policies in a Ramsey model with clean and polluting capital, irreversible investment and a climate constraint. Alternative instruments imply different transitions to the same balanced growth path. The optimal carbon price minimizes the discounted social cost of the transition to clean capital, but imposes immediate private costs that disproportionately affect the current owners of polluting capital, in particular in the form of stranded assets. A phased-in carbon price can avoid stranded assets but still result in a drop of income for the owners of polluting capital when it is implemented. Secondbest standards or feebates on new investment lead to higher total costs but avoid stranded assets, preserve the revenues of vested interests, and smooth abatement costs over individuals and time. These results suggest a trade-off between political feasibility and cost-effectiveness of environmental policies.JEL: L50, O33, O44, Q52, Q54, Q58

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“…Some have also suggested spreading awareness a out the isk of st a ded assets a d change the culture of agents in the financial industry so that they consider it part of their due diligence to beware of pote ntial stranded assets (Inquiry, 2015;Kruitwagen et al, 2016). A radical policy option is to simply forbid the construction of assets that are deemed likely to be stranded by emission reduction policies, for instance enacting moratoriums on new fossil fuel power plants, or new fossil fuel fields (Bertram et al, 2015b;Pfeiffer et al, 2016;Rozenberg et al, 2017).…”

Section: Minimizing Disruptions and Increasing Acceptabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Policies and Nationally Determined Contributions: Reconciling the Needed Ambition with the Political Economy

Vogt-Schilb

Hallegatte

2017

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Countries have pledged to stabilize global warming at a 1.5 to 2°C increase. Either target requires reaching net zero emissions before the end of the century, which implies a major transformation of the economic system. This paper reviews the literature on how policymakers can design climate policies and their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reach zero-net emissions before the end of the century in a socially and politically-acceptable manner. To get the ambition right, policymakers can use sectoral roadmaps with targets and indicators that track progress towards zero emissions (e.g. regarding renewable power or reforestation). Indeed, monitoring economy-wide emissions reductions alone would not ensure that short-term action contributes meaningfully to the long-term decarbonization goal. To get the political economy right, climate policies can be designed so that they contribute to nonclimate objectives and create coalitions of supporters. For instance, revenues from carbon taxes can fund social assistance and infrastructure investment, while reducing tax evasion and informality. To minimize social and economic disruptions and avoid stranded assets, policymakers can start with a low carbon price level and use complementary policies. Designed at the sector level, complementary policies such as performance standards or feebates for cars, building norms, or moratoriums on new coal power plants can be negotiated in partnership with local stakeholders and trigger a transition to zero carbon without creating disruptive stranded assets.

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The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy

Cited by 167 publications

References 46 publications

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

Instrument Choice and Stranded Assets in the Transition to Clean Capital

Climate Policies and Nationally Determined Contributions: Reconciling the Needed Ambition with the Political Economy

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