The 2001 British Election Study Internet Poll

Sanders, David; Clarke, Harold D.; Stewart, Marianne C.; Whiteley, Paul; Twyman, Joe

doi:10.1300/j199v03n04_02

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…This may explain why the some pollsters have observed that unweighted data performs better than weighted data (Sanders et al 2004;Twyman 2008). Another way to demonstrate the effect that standard sampling and weighting techniques have on the results is to look only at easily contacted respondents (i.e.…”

Section: How Do the Internet And Face-to-face Samples Differ?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Missing Nonvoters and Misweighted Samples

Mellon

Prosser

2017

Public Opinion Quarterly

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The pre-election polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. We analyse evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study data. We find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among "don't knows" or differential turnout of parties' supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probability sample and online panel, we show that the online survey's polling error is primarily caused by undersampling non-voters, then weighting respondents to represent the general population. Consequently, demographic groups with a low probability of voting are over-weighted within the voter subsample. Finally, we show that this mechanism is likely partially responsible for the over-estimate of the Liberal Democrats in 2010, showing that this is a longstanding problem with British polls.

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Section: How Do the Internet And Face-to-face Samples Differ?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Missing Nonvoters and Misweighted Samples

Mellon

Prosser

2017

Public Opinion Quarterly

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“…Whereas polling prior to the 2001 election put 'Europe' among the five issues most frequently named by respondents that would determine their vote, it was only the 12th most frequently named issue in 2005 (McKay, 2006: 86). 4 Figures 1 and 2 provide illustrations of mass opinion towards the euro drawn from the 2001 and 2005 BES (Sanders et al, 2001(Sanders et al, , 2005. Figure 1 shows the percentage of respondents choosing each of three possible answers to a question asking whether the UK should keep the pound or adopt the euro.…”

Section: The Euro and The 2001 And 2005 Uk Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the level of party conflict and mass disagreement over the euro, the UK elections of 2001 and 2005 are promising cases for observing these relationships. I examine data from the 2001 and 2005 BES (Sanders et al, 2001(Sanders et al, , 2005 because each survey includes appropriate questions for measuring voting behavior, political knowledge, and attitudes towards the adoption of the euro.…”

Section: Data and Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Support for the euro, political knowledge, and voting behavior in the 2001 and 2005 UK general elections

Tillman

2012

European Union Politics

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This article examines the effect of political knowledge on support for the euro and voting on the euro issue in the 2001 and 2005 UK general elections. Political knowledge increased support for the euro in 2001 but had no effect in 2005 and it conditioned the effect of the euro issue on vote choice in both elections. The effect of the euro issue on voting was stronger among knowledgeable voters, who were more likely to vote correctly on the issue by choosing a party closest to their own views on the euro. These findings demonstrate heterogeneity in voting on the euro issue in these elections and should motivate further inquiry into the role that political knowledge plays in conditioning voting behavior on European issues.

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“…6Full details of an experiment undertaken as part of the 2001 BES which led to this part of the 2005 study are in Sanders et al (2004).…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sampling People or People in Places? The BES as an Election Study

2007

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Electoral surveys conducted as part of the regular series of British Election Studies have used a stratified, clustered sampling design. This is constructed to ensure a nationally representative sample of voters (after weighting) but does not necessarily ensure a representative sample of the different social areas within the country. Much recent work has indicated the important role of local social and electoral milieux in the structuring of electoral behaviour but these are not reflected in the sampling design. An analysis of the geography of the face-to-face pre-election component of the 2005 BES shows not only that it was unrepresentative of certain types of area (defined using bespoke neighbourhood data) but also that it was less representative of such areas than the two (larger) internet samples (pre- and post-election) also undertaken as part of the 2005 BES. This suggests the need to reconsider the nature of the sample designs (even the entire survey methodology) to be deployed at future election studies in Great Britain.

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The 2001 British Election Study Internet Poll

Cited by 8 publications

References 5 publications

Missing Nonvoters and Misweighted Samples

Missing Nonvoters and Misweighted Samples

Support for the euro, political knowledge, and voting behavior in the 2001 and 2005 UK general elections

Sampling People or People in Places? The BES as an Election Study

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